Interpretation of Six Major Indicators: What Will Be the Price of Bitcoin by the End of This Year?

Author: ElonMoney Research

Compiled by: Felix, PANews

This article analyzes indicators such as MVRV Z-Score, Energy Value Oscillator, Bitcoin Heater, and historical data. Although historical data is a useful reference, its accuracy may decrease in the current environment, as there were no participants like Strategy, Metaplanet, and ETF during the 2021 cycle.

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score metric is a measure of market valuation that looks for the tops and bottoms of market cycles by comparing the degree to which an asset deviates from fair value when it is undervalued or overvalued. The chart shows that the current MVRV Z-Score is around 2 to 3, in the neutral zone, away from the overheated values that occurred at the top of the market. Historically, peaks in the Bitcoin cycle have pushed this metric into the red zone (around 7 to 9), indicating a significant disconnect between market capitalization and realized market capitalization. Today, the indicator is just above 2 and is in the blue/yellow zone, indicating that Bitcoin is not overvalued.

As a background information: at the beginning of 2021, Bitcoin surpassed 7 before reaching about $60,000 to $65,000. During the bear market in 2022, the indicator dropped below 0 (green zone), indicating that the market was oversold.

From a technical perspective, there is still a lot of room for growth at current levels before this cycle ends. Even if Bitcoin reaches around 100,000 to 110,000 USD, it would not be considered "expensive" according to the MVRV standard. If Bitcoin replicates the structural patterns of previous peaks, the MVRV Z-Score indicator is expected to rise to 5 to 7 or higher.

This means that the future market will have significant upside potential. Basic inference suggests that the top based on MVRV often occurs when BTC trading prices are far above $100,000—possibly exceeding $200,000, depending on the changes in realized market capitalization over the next few months.

Energy Value Oscillator

This indicator measures the "fair value" of Bitcoin based on total energy (Energy Value = Hash Rate × Energy Efficiency). The red-orange line in the above chart indicates the energy-based fair value, which is approximately $130,000 by mid-2025. The blue oscillating indicator below tracks the degree of deviation of the current price from this benchmark.

Historically, when the trading price of Bitcoin is significantly higher than its energy value, the oscillation indicator enters the red zone (valuation above 100%). At the beginning of 2021, the price of Bitcoin was around $60,000, which was over 100% higher than its energy value. In contrast, in 2022, the trading price of Bitcoin fell below its energy value, and the oscillation indicator was in the green (undervalued) zone.

Currently, the oscillation indicator is around zero, and the trading price of Bitcoin (between $107,000 and $110,000) is 10% to 20% lower than the fair value calculated by the model. This indicates that Bitcoin is not overheating. If the energy value reaches about $150,000 by the second half of 2025, and the price experiences a trading premium of 50% to 100% (which is common around the peak of the cycle), then this would imply a price range between $225,000 and $300,000.

In other words: The Energy Value Oscillator indicator confirms that Bitcoin still has plenty of room for upward movement. According to this standard, the market is unlikely to be in a state of "extremely overvalued" before this oscillation indicator breaks above +100%.

Bitcoin Heater** (Derivatives Overheating Indicator)**

The Bitcoin Heater indicator integrates derivatives sentiment (funding rates, basis, and options skew) into a single index ranging from 0 to 1. An indicator close to 1.0 indicates bubbles, aggressive long positions, and high leverage. An indicator around 0.0 to 0.3 indicates market cooling or risk-averse sentiment.

In previous cycles (especially in 2021), this indicator often broke above 0.8 before local adjustments. However, during the strong bull market (from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021), the indicator remained high but did not immediately trigger a reversal. As of mid-2025, the indicator is around 0.6 to 0.7, in a warm state but not yet overheated.

This indicates that we have not yet entered the final phase of the frenzy of the cycle. In the last phase of the upward movement, this indicator may reach between 0.8 and 1.0. Before that, there is still room for the market to rise. It is reasonable for the indicator to periodically exceed 0.8 before peaking, but the final peak is likely to align with the sustained red area indicator.

Macroeconomic Index Oscillation Indicator

The composite index uses over 40 fundamental, on-chain, and market indicators to assess the macro phase of Bitcoin. An index above 0 indicates expansion; an index below 0 indicates contraction or recovery.

During the previous bull market cycle, the indicator transitioned from the negative zone to a strong positive zone—peaking close to 2 to 3 in 2021. When it hit the bottom in 2022, the indicator fell below -1. As of now, the macro index is around +0.7—clearly in a growth phase, but still far below the extreme levels of euphoria.

This means that the cycle may be in the mid-expansion phase. It is expected that as the cycle progresses towards the end of 2025, this indicator will rise above 2.0. There is still room for Bitcoin to rise before any stagnation or reversal in core network activity occurs. Currently, there are no signs of fatigue.

Volume Summer（Liquidity****/**Participation）

Volume Summer aggregates the net buyer transaction volume of the spot market and the derivatives market. A value above zero indicates net inflow; below zero indicates net outflow or reduced trading activity.

At the beginning of 2021, the indicator soared into the bright green zone - a sign of retail FOMO and frenzied participation. In 2022, the indicator plummeted into the red zone, confirming a massive withdrawal of funds.

The current Volume Summer indicator is moderately positive (about +75,000) - bullish, but far from euphoric levels. This means that capital is returning, but the peak liquidity phase may still be ahead (Q4 2025?). If this indicator surges again into the deep green area, a surge in the market is expected.

At the current level, liquidity provides support - but is far from peaking. There is still more momentum driving further increases.

Open Interest/Market Capitalization Ratio (OI/Mcap)

This indicator measures the leverage ratio relative to market capitalization. In 2021, the indicator hovered between 2% and 3%. By 2023, it surged to around 4%, laying the groundwork for adjustments in mid-2024. After a market crash, the indicator reset to 2%, clearing excess leverage.

By mid-2025, the indicator is expected to rebound to around 3.5%. This suggests that leverage has risen again. While this is beneficial for market growth in the short term (providing more momentum for the upward trend), it also increases risk. If the indicator rises above 4% - 5% by the end of the year, it could indicate a crowded and unstable market, making it susceptible to a sell-off.

The final stage of this cycle may be characterized by record leverage rates—this metric reached new highs when prices peaked. However, there is still room for upward movement.

This year December the potential trend of BTC

Considering all indicators, it is expected that BTC is in the core phase of a bull market cycle, but it is not yet nearing its end.

Currently, there are no signals of extreme overvaluation. Most indicators show strong growth, but still below the levels seen at the historical cycle tops.

Therefore, the basic prediction is that BTC will reach between $210,000 and $230,000 by the end of 2025, which is more than double the current level. Based on these valuations, it is expected that:

• MVRV Z-Score > 7
• Energy Value Oscillator > +100%
• Bitcoin Heater Yoda 1.0
• Volume Summer is in an excited range
• OI/Mcap is at historically extreme levels

Only then can the market possibly transition from the expansion phase to the distribution phase.

Related reading: After Bitcoin's all-time high, what are the four major catalysts for the follow-up market?