My UnitedHealth $UNH Investment Thesis 🏥🩺 🚨

Healthcare's downturn is uncovering gems like Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer—and now UNH. Down ~50% YTD, but July 29 earnings could trigger a turnaround. As a proven outperformer, UNH looks deeply undervalued. Here's my bull case in bullets 👇

Why the Sell-Off? Overblown 2024 Chaos
- Dominated 2009-2023: Annual positive returns, steady EPS growth, 134% 10-year gains.
- Key hits: Feb cyber attack (one-time EPS dip), DOJ antitrust/fraud probes, rising Medicare/Optum costs.
- April: Q1 earnings miss + lowered guidance.
- Leadership: CEO death and drama.
- Result: Down 7% over 5 years, boosted by sector outflows (biggest since 2020). Markets overreact!

Bullish Signals: Momentum Building
- Insider buys: $32M in 2024 (15-yr high, incl. new CEO/CFO).
- Congress: Net buying in Q2 (first in 5 yrs vs. historical selling).
- DOJ update: Shifting to PBM unit, dropping monopoly focus—implies no major issues!
- Sector edge: Healthcare undervalued (1 of 3 S&P sectors below avg); super investors piling in despite -10% YTD vs. S&P +13%.
- Dividend perks: Record ~3% yield (vs. 1.5% avg) + 16% historical growth + 100% FCF conversion. Yield + growth winner!

Valuation: Massive Upside Potential
- Current PE: ~11.9 (vs. 10-yr avg 23)—bargain!
- Projections: 16.7% EPS CAGR to 2029.
- Conservative scenario: $780/share by 2030 (173% return, 18% CAGR ex-divs).
- Optimistic: $1,084/share (280% return).
- Models: DCF $484 (70% upside); DDM $607 (112%); Blended $545 (75-90% from ~$300).
- DOJ fears creating mispricing.

July 29 Catalyst
- "Most important earnings ever."
- Watch for: DOJ/legal updates, full-year guidance, MLR/PBM metrics.
- Low bar: 20 bearish EPS revisions (0 bullish)—setup for upside surprise 🚀.

Risks & Technicals
- Risks: Regulatory escalation, Medicare costs, sector selling.
- Mitigants: DOJ de-risking, strong FCF buffer, insider confidence.
- Tech insights: At resistance; EVaR signals low-risk; RSI oversold.
- Targets: $484 to $1,084 (see attachment)

My Plan
- Allocating 1-1.5% portfolio today.
- Strategy: DCA on dips—this giant's too beaten down for much more downside.
- Outlook: Bullish long-term.

This is not financial advice. 🚫 I'm just sharing personal views. 🤜🏽🤛🏽

What do you think?

Quick Viz: Current ~$278 | DCF $484 | Blended $545 | Cons. $780 | Opt. $1,084