Global asset differentiation intensifies, Crypto Assets become a new balance pivot

At the beginning of April, a tariff policy turmoil triggered significant fluctuations in global assets. Although policymakers subsequently expressed statements that eased market sentiment, this event still highlighted the uncertainty of the current economic environment. Against this backdrop, Crypto Assets such as Bitcoin have demonstrated unique resilience, attracting the attention of investors.

From the perspective of economic data, the macroeconomic indicators in the United States for April show a complex situation. The job market is performing reasonably well, but the consumer confidence index has seen a significant decline. The rise in inflation expectations has also raised concerns in the market about the economic outlook. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global economic growth forecast in its latest report, reflecting a cautious attitude towards the economic outlook.

The Federal Reserve is facing severe policy challenges. Inflation remains persistently above target levels, but the risks of slowing economic growth cannot be ignored. In this context, the Federal Reserve has chosen to keep interest rates unchanged, indicating that it will continue to closely monitor changes in economic data. The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve may not begin cutting interest rates until the first half of 2025.

The financial market performance in April was dramatic. At the beginning of the month, the US stock market was severely hit, with technology stocks particularly affected. However, by the end of the month, there was a significant rebound, partly attributed to expectations of possible adjustments to tariff policies and strong performances from some tech giants. Nevertheless, many analysts remain cautious about this rebound, believing that the market still faces numerous uncertainties.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin's performance is remarkable. In mid to late April, the price of Bitcoin broke through the $94,000 mark, setting a new high for the year. This surge corresponds with gold reaching new highs, highlighting Bitcoin's attributes as "digital gold." The volatility of Bitcoin has significantly decreased, attracting more medium- to long-term capital to enter the market.

Data shows that the wealth of long-term holders has significantly increased during this round of price surge. The performance of Bitcoin aligns with the historical patterns of bull market cycles, which typically experience a pullback after reaching new highs, followed by a resumption of the upward trend. Currently, a large amount of Bitcoin is in a profitable state, a phenomenon that historically often indicates the arrival of a bull market.

Driven by Bitcoin, the total market value of global Crypto Assets has surpassed 3 trillion USD. The market capitalization of Bitcoin has exceeded that of some of the world's top technology companies, making it the fifth largest asset after gold, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. Notably, the long-term correlation between Bitcoin and US tech stocks has shown a "decoupling", demonstrating independent market performance.

Crypto assets are changing the logic of global asset pricing. Some investment experts have significantly raised their long-term price targets for Bitcoin, reflecting the market's optimism about its future potential.

Looking ahead, market trends will largely depend on the direction of tariff policies and the development of the economic situation. Although short-term fluctuations are difficult to avoid, the independence and counter-cyclical characteristics exhibited by Crypto Assets may attract more investors seeking asset diversification. Against the backdrop of increasing global economic uncertainty, Crypto Assets are gradually becoming an important part of asset allocation.