2025/7/16 #ETH# $ETH current trend assessment: pump trend (but short-term pullback signal detected)

Core basis:
1. Price Trend:
The latest closing price is 3133.97, which is a 23.3% pump from 2542.29 on July 7.
Recently reached a phase new high of 3152.53, showing an overall ladder-like rise.
2. EMA Indicator:
The fast line (3040.71) continues to be above the slow line (2986.44), and the gap is widening.
The double EMA is in a bullish arrangement, but note that the slope of the fast line has slightly slowed down.
3. MACD Indicator:
The bar chart has turned from negative to positive (latest 3.86), but the volume has significantly decreased compared to the previous high of 15.48.
DIF(54.27) and DEA(50.41) continued to rise after the golden cross, but the difference narrowed.
4. Volume Coordination:
From July 9 to 11, there was a continuous rise in volume (peak of 1.04 billion).
Recently, the trading volume has pulled back to 210 million level.
5. RSI Indicator:
The daily RSI ( is at 71.63), still in the strong zone but approaching the overbought threshold.
The 4-hour RSI shows a top divergence (price makes a new high but RSI does not make a new high)
Key reversal signal:
Short-term risk:
StochRSI shows a death cross (K78.41 crosses down D61.94)
MACD red bars shorten for three consecutive periods
The long upper shadow in the 20:00 cycle indicates selling pressure around 3150.
Support Observation:
Short-term support: 3040 (previous high conversion point)
Strong support: 2975 (EMA slow line + July 14 low point)
Operation suggestion:
1. Holders: Consider taking partial profits above 3100, keeping the base position.
2. Observers: Waiting for a pullback stabilization signal in the 3000-3040 range
3. Risk Warning: If it falls below 2975 and the MACD forms a death cross, it may turn into a sideways market.
Trend Strength Assessment (0-10 points):
Short-term momentum: 7 points (good volume-price coordination but indicator divergence)
Mid-term trend: 8.5 points (EMA bullish arrangement not broken)
Market Sentiment: Greed (RSI > 70 for 6 consecutive periods)
Currently, it is a normal pullback in an upward trend. The overall bullish pattern remains unchanged until a key support level is effectively broken. It is recommended to pay attention to whether the next 4-hour candlestick can stabilize above 3100.