The U.S. economy starts strong with the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, and global stock markets hit new highs.

The US economy welcomes a strong start in 2024. Although rising inflation data may delay interest rate cuts, excellent economic performance has injected confidence into the market and consumers. US stocks continued to hit new highs in January, with technology stocks becoming the market focus again; however, TSL experienced its first decline in gross profit in years. The Asia-Pacific stock market performed well, while European stock markets remained stable with fluctuations. The Bitcoin ETF was approved, but the crypto market faced short-term pressure, then stabilized and saw some recovery.

The U.S. non-farm payroll data for December, released on January 5, significantly exceeded expectations, setting a positive tone for the new year. However, the robust employment data also raised concerns about inflation. The December CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and well above the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2%. Although inflation has rebounded, the market generally believes that the timing for interest rate cuts will be later than previously expected, possibly not starting until mid-year.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond showed a steady upward trend in January, reflecting the market's expectations for rising CPI. Economic data continued to exceed expectations, with the January Markit Manufacturing PMI reaching a nearly 15-month high, and the annualized quarterly GDP growth for the fourth quarter at 3.3%, far exceeding the expected value of 2%. The annual GDP growth rate reached 2.5%. The consumer confidence index also improved, with the University of Michigan's confidence index hitting a year-and-a-half high.

The S&P 500 Index reached a historic high this month, surpassing the previous peak from January 2022. The Nasdaq Composite Index is only about 5% away from a new high, while the Nasdaq 100 Index has already broken new ground. Market focus has shifted back to tech stocks, with Nvidia and Microsoft hitting new all-time highs. The AI revolution has become a consensus in the market, and it is expected to continue impacting the coming years, even decades.

It is worth noting that TSL's stock price has seen a continuous decline, with a gap down on January 25, falling more than 12%. This is mainly due to the challenge to TSL's position as the global leader in electric vehicles, as BYD has surpassed its delivery volume in the fourth quarter. TSL's gross profit for 2023 has seen a decline for the first time in many years, decreasing by 15% compared to 2022, while cash flow has also decreased by 42%.

Other countries' markets are also performing positively. The Sensex 30 index in Mumbai, India, has reached a new historical high, while the Nikkei 225 index is approaching 37,000 points, close to its historical peak in 1990. The German DAX and French CAC 40 indices are currently in a high-level consolidation phase.

On January 11, 11 companies' Bitcoin spot ETFs were approved as scheduled. This allows ordinary investors to purchase Bitcoin assets as easily as buying and selling stocks, bringing potential incremental funds to the crypto market. However, the market did not rise as expected; instead, it experienced a decline, mainly because early investors who bought Grayscale's GBTC started to sell off.

Grayscale, as an important institution in the encryption world, has long provided compliant cryptocurrency investment channels for investors through trust funds. After GBTC converted to an ETF, early investors were finally able to sell their holdings, leading to significant selling pressure in the market. From the position data, it can be seen that Grayscale's large-scale reduction in holdings began on the 11th.

J.P. Morgan's latest research report indicates that, considering the net outflow of GBTC has reached 4.3 billion USD, the profit-taking phase may have largely completed, and the downward pressure on Bitcoin should have basically ended. Affected by this news, the price of Bitcoin began to stabilize around 40,000 to 41,000 USD, showing a certain degree of recovery.

Although short-term prices are influenced by various factors, ETFs provide a more convenient way for retail and institutional investors to purchase Bitcoin, and this hard logic of incremental capital inflow still exists. Therefore, expectations for a bull market in the crypto market in 2024 remain optimistic.

Overall, the stock market performed well in the first month of the new year, while the crypto market experienced some ups and downs. Currently, there are no significant risks to overall market liquidity, and the U.S. economy remains in good shape. In this environment, the crypto market is expected to recover from previous losses and trend upward again. As incremental funds gradually enter the market, it is expected that there will be better development.