My experiences and lessons from this cycle

Recently, we invited two guests, Jiang Xin and Yu Zhong Kuang Shui, to engage in an in-depth discussion about investment experiences in the current cryptocurrency market cycle.

Judgment on the Current Stage

Jiang Xin believes that Bitcoin is in the mid-stage of a bull market, but altcoins have entered a deep bear phase, expecting a correction of more than half a year. Yu Zhong Kuang Shui indicates that the current market is in a chaotic state, with significant differentiation in the performance of different assets, which need to be viewed separately.

Changes in Investment Difficulty

Both guests agree that the difficulty of investment in this cycle has significantly increased. The main reasons include:

1. Liquidity shortage
2. Insufficient endogenous innovation动力
3. The project party lacks long-term development motivation.
4. Structural issues in the market

The Most Correct Investment Operation

Jiang Xin mentioned two points:

1. Buy the dip when Bitcoin plummets in February and April.
2. Timely clear out altcoins to avoid significant pullbacks.

Sleeping wildly in the rain mentions betting on AI Agent narratives to achieve considerable returns.

Investment Mistakes and Lessons Learned

Mainly includes:

1. Don't be too eager to pursue high returns.
2. Do not predict the market, but follow the market.
3. Beware of self-ego inflation
4. Write more trade reviews

Judgment on the Shanzhai Season

The two guests believe that a comprehensive imitation season is unlikely to reoccur, but there may be partial imitation market trends. The reasons include:

1. Too many projects, liquidity is dispersed.
2. Lack of events to boost market confidence
3. The supply of new projects continues to increase

Thoughts on Cross-Circle Investment

Jiang Xin is increasing his allocation to US stocks, believing that they represent a relatively certain opportunity. However, he reminds cryptocurrency investors to be cautious when crossing over.

1. There may be a cognitive disadvantage in the early stages.
2. Need to be familiar with the gameplay and logic of the new market.
3. Emotional game experience may be helpful

Sleeping wildly in the rain tends to favor investments related to on-chain returns, believing that funds should be placed in more familiar areas.

Overall, the difficulty of investment in this cycle has increased, requiring a more prudent and rational view of the market, as well as effective risk management. At the same time, it is important to appropriately expand the capability circle and seek new opportunities in the midst of changes.