Crypto Assets Market Recent Trends and Outlook

Recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that significant progress has been made in controlling inflation, but further observation is needed to determine the timing of interest rate cuts. The latest U.S. employment data shows that non-farm payrolls in June slightly exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1%. This data has fueled market expectations for a rate cut to begin in September, with the current probability reaching 71.8%.

The US Bitcoin spot ETF market is performing positively, with net inflows reaching $238 million last week. However, the price of Bitcoin has shown the opposite trend, dropping from a high of $63,800 at the beginning of the week to $53,500 by the weekend, a decline of over 16%. This phenomenon indicates that the positive correlation between ETF fund flows and Bitcoin price movements is weakening.

In the field of stablecoins, some important developments are worth noting. A well-known stablecoin issuer has received full approval from the Monetary Authority of Singapore to issue stablecoins under the upcoming framework. The company also announced a partnership with the largest asset-sized bank in Southeast Asia to meet cash management and reserve custody needs. Meanwhile, another stablecoin issuer stated that its USD and EUR stablecoins have complied with the new EU "MiCA" regulation and officially started issuing on July 1.

The market is also paying attention to the possibility of new developments in the bankruptcy case of a large crypto assets exchange. Data shows that the exchange has transferred approximately $2.7 billion worth of Bitcoin to a new wallet, likely in preparation for repaying creditors. The repayment process is expected to last until October.

In addition, the German government has also recently engaged in large-scale Bitcoin transfers, transferring a total of 9,332.3 coins since mid-June, valued at approximately $572 million.

In terms of regulation, the Basel Committee has revised the standards for Crypto Assets, proposing a set of standardized public forms and templates for banks to disclose the risks associated with Crypto Assets. This framework aims to enhance information transparency and maintain market discipline, and is scheduled to be officially implemented on January 1, 2026.

From a technical analysis perspective, the Bitcoin daily chart has formed a double top pattern, and the price has broken below the neck support level of $58,279. Currently, the new support range is between $50,000 and $52,000. If this range is breached, the Bitcoin price may further decline to around $47,000.

In summary, despite the positive performance of the Bitcoin ETF market, the price of Bitcoin has still shown a downward trend this week. However, the non-farm payroll data released on Friday brought good news to the investment market, prompting a rebound in Bitcoin prices. Investors should closely monitor the upcoming US CPI data and be wary of potential market fluctuations.