The crypto market is on the verge of recovery, and Bitcoin is expected to break through $70,000.

For coffee enthusiasts, water quality is a key factor affecting taste. Similarly, in the financial markets, liquidity is an important variable determining the direction of asset prices. Currently, the U.S. Treasury is extracting funds through the issuance of Treasury bonds from the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase agreement program (RRP) to inject liquidity into the market.

Treasury Secretary Yellen plans to issue at least $301 billion in Treasury bills by the end of the year, potentially reaching up to $1.05 trillion. This will create a bull market for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. The price of Bitcoin shows a clear negative correlation with the scale of RRP funds - when funds flow out of RRP, the price of Bitcoin tends to rise.

According to this relationship, Bitcoin is expected to break free from the sideways downtrend starting in September, with hopes of surpassing $70,000 by the end of the year. Ethereum may also break through $4,000. Only after Bitcoin and Ethereum reach these levels will altcoins welcome a bull market.

The U.S. election will be held in early November, and the Treasury may increase liquidity injections in October. Therefore, October to November this year may be the best investment time for cryptocurrencies. However, considering the uncertainty of the election, investors may take appropriate profits at the end of the year and wait to re-enter the market after the debt ceiling issue is resolved in January to February next year.

In the long term, Bitcoin is still expected to reach 1 million dollars. In 2025, as the United States and China jointly release liquidity, the crypto market may usher in a new round of bull market.