Structural Issues and Reconstruction Path of TON

TON has transitioned from obscurity to prominence over the past two years, rapidly establishing a strong presence based on Telegram's user base. However, in the face of fluctuating prices, a decline in market capitalization, and decreasing activity, TON has also exposed deep-seated structural issues: concentration of chips, homogeneity of the ecosystem, and weak infrastructure.

Chips are Extremely Concentrated: The Divide Between Whales and Retail Investors

The start of TON was not smooth, as it faced issues such as concentrated chips and historical miner lock-ups from the beginning. In June 2020, 98.55% of TON was available for mining, and until the end of mining on June 28, 2022, most of the tokens were in the hands of early miners.

According to the data, there are 12 whale addresses that hold more than 1% of the total supply, of which 6 are low-activity addresses. The addresses marked as "frozen" refer to inactive early miner addresses, totaling 171, with 10.81 million TON locked.

The polarization of TON is very severe, with users holding less than 100 TON accounting for nearly 99.9%. Starting from March 2024, retail investors flooded in, and the number of addresses holding over 100K TON peaked at around 1,300 in August, but then saw a decline.

Valuation declines, but there is still room for upside

There are several significant price increase points for TON.

1. Official support from the exchange in November 2021
2. Large capital inflow in February-March 2024
3. Rise in June-July 2024

According to the data, the TON coin price ATL was $0.5194 in September 2021, and the ATH was $8.25 on June 15, 2024.

In the past year, the TON token has fallen over 50% from its peak, with its market value dropping from a high of $25.17B to the current $8.64B. The ecosystem's TVL has also decreased from a peak of $770 million to $140 million, a decline of nearly 80%.

Nevertheless, TON still has room for recovery. Compared to the market capitalizations of Ethereum at $306B and Solana at $91B, TON still has significant upside potential.

Inflation is controllable, and application scenarios await expansion.

The initial supply of TON tokens is 5 billion, with an annual growth rate of about 0.6%. The tokens are used to reward validators, and currently, staking can yield an approximate APY of 4.7%.

The application scenarios of tokens include: smart contract transaction fees, payment platform application services, staking, cross-chain transactions, governance, and storage services, etc. Currently, TON can be purchased directly with a credit card, and then used to buy virtual goods.

Telegram Stars is the official intermediary solution designed to support payments for digital goods and services. This is a plan to gradually guide web2 users into the crypto world using TON.

The Reality After the Traffic Recession: Growing Pains of Ecological Transformation

The TON track is currently crowded with over 1000 projects, but only 20 small categories. The official focus is no longer on the gaming ecosystem, but rather on the payment side. Aside from games and memes, other tracks have relatively low recognition.

On-chain activity continues to decline, reflecting a significant weakening of ecological growth momentum. This is due to multiple factors:

• Failed to establish an effective user retention mechanism
• The ecological narrative is singular, lacking diversified track layout.
• The unique development architecture limits the project's innovation efficiency.

User Surge, but Activity is Declining

The number of TON users has rapidly increased from 20 million in May 2024 to currently 150 million. However, the number of active addresses has significantly decreased, with monthly active users dropping from over 10 million at the end of 2024 to currently 2 million daily active users of 30,000.

The trading volume has also decreased from an average of 4 million transactions per day to 2.5 million transactions, but overall it remains relatively stable.

Developer ecosystem under pressure, infrastructure needs strengthening

The number of TON validators is relatively small (400, leading to a certain degree of centralization. The insufficient number of validators may cause delays in transaction processing.

The number of developers has decreased, with currently 30 full-time developers and over 150 active developers per month. The download volume of the TON Connect SDK has dropped from a peak of over 25,000 per week to around 12,000 now.

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The Future: Towards Compatibility and Connectivity

TAC, as an extension of the TON network, is dedicated to connecting TON with EVM applications. It is an independent EVM public chain that supports complete EVM smart contract execution.

TAC is not just a simple bridge; it is more like a native high-speed channel for TON to access EVM, expanding the ecological boundaries of TON. Its development will determine whether TON can truly emerge from the platform dividend and establish its own paradigm.

After the traffic fades away, what can truly remain is the self-sustaining ability of the chain. TON is still at a crossroads.

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