The Potential Impact of Harris's Economic Policy "Opportunity Economy" on the Crypto Market

This week, the market has entered a calm period before the Jackson Hole meeting, with all parties focusing on Powell's interpretation of the latest employment and inflation data, as well as guidance on future monetary policy. This will undoubtedly serve as an important reference for the September interest rate decision.

Last Friday, an interesting piece of information went largely unnoticed in the crypto world: a presidential candidate officially unveiled the first clear economic policy framework - "Opportunity Economy". This is a left-leaning economic plan aimed at reducing the cost of living for the American people through government policies in four areas: housing, healthcare, food and daily necessities, and childcare. If implemented, it could potentially drive the crypto market to replicate the upward trend of 2021, but it might also trigger a resurgence of inflation in the United States.

1.7 trillion subsidy program

The economic policy document is titled "Agenda to Lower Costs for American Families" and is a large-scale subsidy program. With the official nomination of the candidate, its momentum has clearly increased under various parties' promotion, and the polling data once surpassed that of opponents. Although the poll results are subjective, they also reflect the strength of its campaign team, which should not be underestimated.

This economic policy document has sparked considerable controversy, mainly due to its extreme leftist tendencies. Specific measures include:

Housing aspect:

1. Plan to build 3 million new housing units
2. Crack down on businesses and major landlords to reduce rent.
3. Provide a $25,000 down payment subsidy for first-time home buyers.

Medical aspects:

1. Set a cap on insulin and prescription drug costs
2. Accelerate the negotiation of medical insurance for prescription drugs
3. Enhance industry competition and transparency

In terms of food and daily necessities:

1. Promote the ban on price fraud for food and grocery items.
2. Establish rules to limit large companies from obtaining excessive profits
3. Grant regulatory authorities new powers to penalize violating companies.

Parenting:

1. Tax reductions for middle-class families with children
2. Provide tax credits for families with newborns
3. Tax deductions for dual-income families and health insurance purchases

These proposals promise to begin implementation within the first 100 days of taking office. However, they have also sparked considerable controversy, mainly focused on housing and food staple policies, as well as overall budget issues. Critics argue that radical housing policies will increase government debt, while food policies may undermine market regulations.

It is estimated that this plan will increase the government deficit by $1.7 trillion to $2 trillion over the next 10 years, potentially exacerbating the debt crisis, driving up inflation, and deepening social conflicts. After the announcement of this bill, both the US dollar index and gold prices experienced significant fluctuations.

Potential Impact on the Crypto Market

In the short term, this plan may benefit encryption assets. If implemented, it will significantly reduce the cost of living for middle-class families in the United States and increase disposable income. This creates conditions for the rise of risk assets, particularly high-growth technology assets. A similar situation occurred in early 2021 when the government's pandemic relief bill drove a surge in encryption assets like Bitcoin.

However, from a medium to long-term perspective, we must be vigilant about the monetary policy risks brought about by the resulting rise in inflation. The story after 2021 has already shown us that to curb stubborn inflation, the Federal Reserve had to implement over two years of monetary tightening, leading to a significant correction in risk assets.

Therefore, if similar-scale economic policies are implemented again, it may benefit crypto assets in the short term, but caution is needed in the medium to long term to address potential inflation rebound and the accompanying policy risks. Of course, all of this still depends on the election results and the actual implementation of the policies. Continuous attention to the developments is required in the future.