2024 US Election: Analysis of the Multiple Factors Behind Trump's Rising Support Rate

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, data from market prediction platforms shows that Donald Trump's approval rating is gradually rising, with the latest forecast indicating he has received 53% support, while his main competitor Kamala Harris is at 46%. This change in data has sparked widespread attention and discussion, particularly in financial markets and the cryptocurrency community. The rise in Trump's approval rating not only reflects his advantages in economic policy, voter mobilization, and party cohesion, but also reveals the challenges and difficulties Harris faces during the campaign.

This article will analyze the key factors contributing to the rise in Trump's approval ratings from multiple angles, including the Democratic Party's economic policies, the attitude shift of moderate voters, the impact of absent political figures in key states, and the widespread support for Trump from the cryptocurrency industry, to help readers gain a more comprehensive understanding of this complex electoral dynamic.

1. The Controversy of "Harris Economics"

Harris's proposed "Harris Economics" is one of the core policies in her campaign. However, this economic policy has sparked widespread controversy in American society, especially among centrist voters.

1. The price control policy has been questioned.

The most controversial aspect of Harris's economic policy is the price control measures. These measures aim to limit businesses' pricing power on necessities through legislative means to prevent price gouging. However, despite the theoretical benefits of this policy in controlling inflation and protecting consumer interests, its feasibility is widely questioned by economists and policy experts in practice.

Many experts believe that price controls may lead to market distortions, resulting in supply chain issues and shortages of goods. Media editorials point out that Harris's price control policies could undermine the supply-demand balance in the market, potentially leading to black markets and hoarding. This concern is not unfounded; historically, many price control measures have failed due to poor market reactions. Therefore, while Harris's policy may attract some voters hoping to reduce living costs in the short term, it could lead to economic instability in the long run. This has impacted her support among centrist voters, especially among those who are highly concerned about economic stability and market freedom.

2. Housing policy faces challenges

Harris's housing policy has also played a complex role in the election. She proposed a plan to address the housing shortage by building a large number of affordable homes for the middle class. This policy seems reasonable on paper, especially in the face of America's increasingly severe housing crisis; increasing housing supply is undoubtedly a direct and effective solution.

However, the problem is that the execution cost of this policy is extremely high, and its economic feasibility and actual effects have been widely questioned. For example, Harris promised to build 3 million affordable housing units during her first term, but the sources of funding and the details of policy implementation have not been clearly stated. Furthermore, she also proposed a commitment not to increase the tax burden on families earning less than $400,000 a year, which means that the funding for the entire project may rely on large-scale government deficits or increasing taxes on the wealthy, which will undoubtedly further intensify the criticism from both within and outside the Democratic Party.

This uncertainty not only makes centrist voters uneasy but also casts doubt on Harris's credibility in policy implementation. Price controls on housing and subsidies for homebuyers seem to directly address the interests of low- and middle-income voters, but in reality, they may inadvertently trigger further increases in market prices, exacerbating supply and demand conflicts. Therefore, although the proposal of housing policies demonstrates Harris's concern for social issues, the shortcomings in policy design and the difficulties in execution have had a counterproductive effect on the electoral situation.

3. The appeal to the middle class is limited.

Harris's economic policy is centered on improving the quality of life for the middle class. She particularly emphasizes enhancing the economic security of the middle class by increasing the child tax credit and controlling healthcare costs. These measures are theoretically aimed at alleviating the economic pressures faced by the American middle class, especially against the backdrop of high childcare costs and medical expenses.

However, as some critics have pointed out, although these policies have been welcomed by some voters, the issues of long-term sustainability and funding sources remain unresolved challenges. The votes of the middle class are crucial for any candidate, but if the policies are not implemented properly, these votes may shift to opponents. While Harris's policy design has an idealistic tone, potential issues in the implementation process, such as the possibility of increasing the government fiscal deficit, weaken the actual appeal of these policies to the middle class.

In addition, Harris attempts to combine economic policies with social justice issues, such as achieving broader social equity through anti-discrimination legislation and reducing the economic burden on impoverished groups. However, this approach has raised concerns among conservatives and some moderates, who believe that these policies could further expand government power and increase social and economic uncertainty while winning the support of progressives.

4. Overall impact on the election situation

Overall, although Harris's economic policies demonstrate a degree of concern for the middle class and low-income groups, the radical nature of the policy design and lack of execution details have resulted in her support among centrist and economically liberal voters not effectively increasing. On the contrary, these voters may be more inclined to support Trump, who has clearer positions and more pragmatic policies.

The controversy surrounding these policies has not only put Harris at a disadvantage in the election but also provided Trump with a pretext for attack. Trump can leverage the uncertainties in these policies to emphasize his experience in economic management and his support for market freedom, thus attracting voters who are more concerned about economic stability and growth. Therefore, the impact of the Democratic Party's economic policies in this election is twofold: on one hand, it strengthens Harris's support among progressives; on the other hand, it creates more uncertainty among key moderate voters, thus providing conditions for Trump's rising support.

II. The Attitudes of American Centrist Voters are Wavering

Centrist voters often play a key role in U.S. elections. Their positions typically do not lean toward either side, focusing more on the candidates' actual policies and their impact on the economy and society. Against the backdrop of controversies surrounding Harris's economic policies, support for her among centrist voters has begun to decline. In contrast, while Trump's economic policies are also controversial, his clear stance on tax cuts and economic stimulus aligns better with centrist voters' expectations for economic development.

In addition, Trump's support for the free market, along with the economic measures he implemented during his presidency, such as tax cuts and deregulation, has garnered recognition from some moderate voters. In contrast, Harris's economic policies are considered too radical, particularly in areas like price controls and housing subsidies, making it difficult for her to increase support among moderates.

3. The Impact of the Absence of the Pennsylvania Governor on the Election Situation

The absence of the Pennsylvania governor has had a negative impact on Harris's campaign. Pennsylvania, as a key swing state, has voters whose attitudes are crucial to the outcome of the national election. The governor's absence may be interpreted as dissatisfaction within the party regarding Harris's economic policies or campaign strategies, and this dissatisfaction could further undermine Harris's support in the state.

In this situation, voters may have doubts about Harris's campaign ability and party cohesion, leading them to turn to the more certain Trump. The governor's absence not only affects Harris's election prospects in Pennsylvania but also indirectly impacts her performance in other swing states. For Harris, ensuring unity within the party and support in key states is crucial for her campaign's success, but the governor's absence undoubtedly increases her challenges in this regard.

Four, Trump and the Interaction with the Crypto Industry

Trump's support for the cryptocurrency industry is another important factor in his rising approval ratings. Although Trump had a negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies in the early stages, he gradually changed his stance as the market developed and began to actively support the crypto industry.

In the 2024 election, Trump became one of the first major candidates to openly accept cryptocurrency donations. His campaign team announced that they would accept donations in various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. This move not only showcased his open attitude towards cryptocurrencies but also established a closer connection with the crypto community.

The decision to accept cryptocurrency donations is a strategic step that not only expands Trump's voter base but also attracts young voters and tech enthusiasts who are skeptical of the traditional financial system. These voters often have a strong sense of identity with decentralization, free markets, and financial innovation. By accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump sends them a clear message: he supports this emerging field and is willing to advocate for it politically.

In addition to accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump has made a series of policy commitments that further solidify his position within the cryptocurrency community. One of the most notable promises is to grant a pardon to the founder of a well-known cryptocurrency exchange. This commitment has not only won him the favor of many cryptocurrency supporters but also conveyed his tolerant attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry to the outside world.

In addition, Trump stated that if he is elected again, he will promote the inclusion of Bitcoin in the United States' strategic reserves and consider using Bitcoin to address some national debt issues. Although these proposals have sparked widespread controversy in mainstream finance, they have received a warm response within the crypto community. Cryptocurrency supporters believe that these initiatives will greatly enhance the legitimacy and global status of cryptocurrencies, bringing greater development opportunities to the industry.

This supportive attitude has gained widespread recognition in the crypto community. Compared to Harris, Trump's position in the cryptocurrency field is clearer and more proactive, earning him a large number of supporters in this emerging market. Practitioners and investors in the cryptocurrency industry are very sensitive to market prospects, and they are more willing to support a candidate who holds an open attitude towards the crypto industry. Trump's stance has clearly won him the support of this voter segment and has driven his approval rating rise.

V. Cryptocurrency Companies' Election Spending in the 2024 U.S. Election Cycle

According to a report, nearly half of the corporate political donations in the 2024 election cycle come from crypto companies. These companies influence election outcomes by supporting candidates aligned with their interests. The crypto industry's support for Trump is not only reflected in rhetoric but also significantly impacts the election through financial assistance.

This corporate-level support further consolidates Trump's position in the crypto community and related industries. As more crypto companies and individual investors direct funds towards Trump’s political action committee (PAC), Trump's financial and promotional advantages in the election are strengthened, which also directly drives his support rate rise in prediction markets.

Conclusion

In summary, the rise in Trump's approval ratings is the result of multiple factors working together. Harris's economic policies have sparked controversy, particularly among moderate voters, making it difficult for her to increase her support. The absence of the Pennsylvania governor has heightened concerns about divisions within the party, further weakening Harris's support in key states. Meanwhile, Trump's supportive stance towards the crypto industry has earned him widespread recognition in this emerging market. At the same time, crypto companies'