Unveiling the Truth Behind the Success of Encryption Projects: Data-Driven Insights

In the cryptocurrency circle, there have been long-standing claims about how to successfully issue tokens, such as accumulating a large number of followers, increasing participation through tasks, financing from well-known investment institutions, and controlling the initial circulation. However, the latest research data indicates that these so-called "success rules" are actually not reliable.

A recent research report released by Simplicity Group analyzed 50,000 data points from 40 major token issuances in 2025, resulting in a disruption of many people's perceptions.

The Myth of Participation

Many project teams are obsessed with various metrics on social media, such as likes, shares, comments, etc., and are even willing to spend large amounts of money on participatory marketing and buying followers. However, research shows that these metrics have almost no correlation with token price performance.

The results of the regression analysis indicate that the correlation coefficient R² between the participation index and price performance is only 0.038, meaning that participation hardly explains the success or failure of the token. In fact, likes, comments, and shares even show a slight negative correlation with price performance.

The only slight positive correlation shown is the retweet volume in the week prior to the release, but the correlation is also weak and almost statistically insignificant. This indicates that spending a large amount of money on paid promotions and complex task activities may be a waste of money.

Misconceptions of Low Liquidity

It is widely believed in the industry that issuing tokens with a very low initial circulation can create scarcity and drive up prices. However, data shows that there is no correlation between the ratio of initial circulation to total supply and price performance.

Research shows that what really matters is the dollar value of the initial market capitalization. Data indicates that for every 2.7 times increase in initial market capitalization, the price performance in the first month tends to decrease by about 1.56%. This relationship is so close that it can almost be regarded as a causal relationship.

The Illusion of Financing Scale

Many people believe that raising large amounts of capital from well-known investment institutions is a guarantee of success, but the data does not support this view. Studies show that there is no statistically significant correlation between the amount of financing and the performance of tokens.

In fact, the more funds raised, it usually means a higher valuation, which also requires overcoming greater selling pressure. Additional funds do not automatically translate into better token performance.

Misconceptions about Timing the Hype

Traditional views suggest that important news should be集中发布 during the project kickoff week to maximize momentum. However, data shows that this approach is not wise.

Research has found that projects that can consistently maintain good performance often establish their reputation before launch. User engagement typically peaks before the Token Generation Event (TGE), rather than after launch. This indicates that pre-launch attention can attract real buyers, rather than just "bystanders".

The Truly Effective Method

Since many factors in traditional cognition have been proven ineffective, what is truly important? Research points out the following key points:

1. Actual product utility: Projects that can naturally generate content and provide real value perform better.

2. Trading retention rate: Tokens that can maintain trading volume after initial hype tend to perform significantly better in price.

3. Reasonable initial market value: This is the strongest predictive indicator of success. Projects listed at a reasonable valuation have more room for growth.

4. Authentic communication: A consistent tone that matches the product, along with a sincere and transparent communication style, is more favored.

Why Do Traditional Views Go Wrong?

This cognitive bias is not malicious but is caused by structural issues in social media. Platforms often reward engagement over accuracy, and eye-catching content spreads more easily than real data. Moreover, many opinion leaders actually lack practical experience in issuing tokens.

The True Path to Success

According to the data, the actual practices of successful projects include:

• Focus on building products with real demand
• Reasonable pricing is adopted when the token is released.
• Communicate sincerely with the audience
• Focus on the truly important metrics, rather than superficial data.

Taking Quai Network as an example, they focus on technical explanations and educational content, achieving a 150% increase in the first week after launch. This is not because they have a massive fan base, but because they truly sparked people's interest in their innovations.

In contrast, projects that invest heavily in marketing while neglecting the product itself often struggle to achieve long-term success.

Although many people cater to social media algorithms, those who truly succeed are often the projects that quietly build valuable products and publish wisely. Transparency and a focus on product-driven content strategies are the keys to long-term success.