The Sui Ecosystem Ignites Market Frenzy: A Comprehensive Analysis from Capital Flow to on-chain Data

Recently, the Sui ecosystem has experienced a significant upward trend, with its governance token SUI rising more than 75% within a week, far exceeding the overall market performance. This phenomenon is the result of multiple factors, including speculative enthusiasm driven by market rumors, noticeable changes in capital flow, and the continuous improvement of the ecosystem's fundamentals. This article will conduct an in-depth analysis of the capital movements behind SUI's recent surge, key catalysts, on-chain data performance, and potential risks, providing a comprehensive interpretation of the internal logic of this ecological carnival.

Capital Flow Analysis: Influx of Hot Money into Exchanges, Surge in Contract Positions

From the recent on-chain capital flow, the changes in Sui's funds are not significant. Over a three-month period, Sui has experienced a net outflow of 32 million USD, a relatively small figure. The changes in on-chain capital flow over the past month and the past week are even more negligible, failing to even make it into the top twenty among public chains.

However, the capital flow of the exchange presents a different picture. Data shows that in the past seven days, the spot capital inflow of SUI reached 62.86 million USD, ranking fourth among all cryptocurrencies. During the same period, the contract capital inflow of eco-tokens on the Sui network such as WAL, MEMEFI, and CETUS also made it to the top ten, reflecting a significant increase in the capital activity of the Sui ecosystem.

The contract holdings of the SUI token have skyrocketed since April 21, increasing from 700 million to 1.419 billion within a week, approaching the historical high of 1.5 billion. At the same time, most tokens in the Sui ecosystem also saw significant increases within the week, with 20% of projects rising more than 100% and 37.5% of projects rising more than 50%, showing a comprehensive upward trend.

This increase is actually a general boost to the Sui ecosystem. Although most projects have not made substantial positive progress, the price performance has been exceptionally active.

Multiple positive factors boost market sentiment

On April 21, as mainstream tokens generally rebounded, Sui also began its upward journey. Subsequently, several positive news reports followed, although it is difficult to determine whether these news are the "engine" for the rise or a "smokescreen" accompanying the price increase.

Main benefits include:

1. Pokémon collaboration rumors: Originating from the update of the privacy policy of the Pokémon HOME application, which lists Sui-related companies as authorized developers, leading to speculation in the market about the integration of the Pokémon IP into the Sui blockchain.

2. Financial Cooperation: Sui announced a partnership with a financial platform to launch the Sui-branded virtual Mastercard in Europe, integrated within an app with 2.5 million users.

3. ETF-related news: The earlier news about 21Shares establishing a "SUI ETF" statutory trust entity has been re-exposed, providing support for the rise of SUI.

4. Other developments: The Athens Stock Exchange Group is building an on-chain fundraising platform on Sui, and Nautilus is bringing verifiable off-chain privacy solutions to Sui, etc.

These advancements cover multiple areas such as Web3 gaming, privacy, and development environments, forming an overall positive outlook, which is different from the previous single news from Sui that triggered an explosion.

Surge in DEX Trading Volume and Increase in Developer Activity

Since April, the DEX trading volume on the Sui network has remained high, reaching a historical peak of $998 million on March 29. The leading DEX project in the ecosystem, Cetus Protocol, saw a trading volume increase of 84.5% in the past week, with its token CETUS approaching a double. Another important contributor, Kriya, contributed $780 million in trading volume on March 29 alone.

The surge in trading volume is likely related to the airdrop of Walrus. On March 27, the decentralized storage project Walrus released its airdrop, resulting in a trading volume of $380 million on that day, which may be the main reason for the recent increase in trading volume on the Sui network.

Developer activity is also an important factor in the growth of the Sui network. Since December 2024, the frequency of Github code submissions for the Sui network has peaked, maintaining over 500 submissions per week, far exceeding the levels of Solana and Aptos.

Potential Risks and Future Challenges

Despite the generally optimistic market outlook, Sui still faces some potential risks:

1. Token Unlock Pressure: SUI continues to face selling pressure from token unlocks, releasing tens of millions of tokens weekly, becoming a ticking time bomb during the uptrend.

2. Imbalanced ecosystem structure: Currently, the growth of the Sui ecosystem is mainly led by DEX and infrastructure projects, while application and game projects have not performed prominently. Tokens with high market capitalization are still concentrated in early projects, lacking "hit" applications that can attract a large number of users.

In summary, the recent surge of SUI and its ecosystem is the result of market speculation enthusiasm, influx of funds, expectations in the contract market, and fundamental developments. However, while paying attention to price performance, it is also necessary to be vigilant about the selling pressure brought by continuous token unlocking and to focus on whether the application ecosystem can further prosper. Whether Sui can convert the current excitement into long-term value hinges on whether it can produce truly attractive blockbuster applications for users.