Macroeconomic and Crypto Market Monthly Analysis

The economic data for the United States in June showed divergence; the CPI data indicated a cooling of inflation, while non-farm employment data performed strongly. This divergence has led to difficulties in the market forming a consensus on the Federal Reserve's future rate cut path. Currently, the probability of the first rate cut in September is only 56.3%. There are also differences among Federal Reserve members regarding the number of rate cuts this year, with 11 members believing there should be at most one rate cut and 8 members believing there could be two.

From a trading perspective, the market seems to have started betting on an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. U.S. Treasury yields have been on a downward trend in recent months, and gold prices are consolidating at high levels, indicating an increasing risk appetite for funds. The latest U.S. manufacturing PMI is 51.7, and the GDP growth rate for the second quarter is expected to be 3.0%, with the overall economic outlook improving.

In the stock market, the AI boom has driven Nvidia's market value to temporarily surpass that of Apple and Microsoft, making it the largest company by market value in the world. The three major U.S. stock indices continue to reach new highs this month, but the market is severely polarized. The price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is nearing the 80th percentile since the 21st century, showing clear signs of a bubble. At the same time, the rise in indices is mainly driven by a few heavyweight stocks, while small-cap stocks have underperformed, increasing market risk.

The Asia-Pacific market has performed brilliantly, with the SENSEX index in Mumbai, India approaching 80,000 points, and the Taiwan Weighted Index reaching a historic high. Despite the yen's exchange rate falling below 160, the Nikkei 225 index remains strong.

The crypto market has seen a decline this month despite no significant negative news, with Bitcoin dropping to below $58,500. Analysis indicates that the decline may be related to sell-offs by old OGs and miners. On the other hand, the emergence of financial instruments such as spot ETFs has increased market volatility. However, the Ethereum spot ETF is expected to be approved in early July, and a certain digital asset company has also applied for a Solana ETF, all of which will bring incremental capital to the crypto market.

Overall, despite the uncertainties in the macroeconomy and traditional financial markets, the crypto market shows independence and resilience, and is expected to play a more important role in diversified investment portfolios. The current market adjustment may provide new entry opportunities for investors.