Preface

Bitcoin, as the OG of cryptocurrencies, is not just an innovator in asset classes, but more like the heartbeat of the entire Web3 world. Its every move affects global market sentiment and capital flow. From an early computer science experiment to being adopted by institutions, included in ETFs, and even designated as national legal tender, Bitcoin’s story is still being written.

Bitcoin’s Position

In the Web3 world, BTC is the most consensual asset. Its existence is like a decentralized time anchor. Below are several key positions:

• Digital Gold: Fixed supply cap of 21 million, non-inflationary.

• Store of Value: In the context of global inflation and monetary easing, it becomes a capital-preserving hedge option.

• Macro Financial Indicator: BTC price fluctuations often signal shifts in market risk appetite.

• Web3 Entry Asset: Whether NFT, DeFi, or GameFi, BTC is often the first stop for users entering the crypto world.

Not only investors, but even sovereign wealth funds, listed companies, and traditional banks are starting to allocate a small amount of Bitcoin.

Core Price Drivers of Bitcoin Analysis

1. Bitcoin Halving Effect

Bitcoin’s quadrennial halving reduces block rewards, thereby lowering the supply of new coins in the market. Historically, this has been the trigger for each bull market:

• 2012 halving → 2013 bull market
• 2016 halving → 2017 bull market
• 2020 halving → 2021 bull market
• April 2024 halving → Currently in post-halving price consolidation turning point

When supply decreases and demand remains steady or increases, price jumps are easily triggered. What’s special this time: the halving and ETF listing occurred almost simultaneously, leading to a dual supply-demand squeeze effect that will be more significant.

2. Capital Inflow from Spot Bitcoin ETFs

In early 2024, the U.S. officially approved several spot Bitcoin ETFs, including those by giants like BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK, and Grayscale. This brought three major changes to Bitcoin:

• Increased regulatory compliance, allowing traditional institutions to participate safely.
• Lowered capital entry barriers—retail investors can now invest in BTC via stock accounts.
• Stable daily buying pressure, becoming a strong price support from below.

Currently, according to statistics, more than $150M to $200M in net inflow enters BTC ETFs daily, while miners only produce about $30M worth of BTC per day, creating a clear supply shortage.

3. Institutional and National-Level Adoption Speed

• MicroStrategy: Has accumulated over 200,000 BTC.
• Tesla, Square, U.S. local government pension funds have all allocated a portion of their assets into BTC.
• El Salvador: In 2021, made BTC legal tender.
• Other Latin American and African countries: Exploring similar policies.

If more sovereign countries begin purchasing Bitcoin as foreign reserves, it could push prices into a whole new stage.

4. U.S. Dollar Policy and Interest Rate Changes

Though BTC is a decentralized asset, it is still affected by U.S. dollar liquidity and Federal Reserve policies. When interest rates rise, capital shifts to bonds and savings instruments, pressuring risk assets and leading BTC to decline. When rate cuts or easing expectations grow strong, capital flows back to stocks and crypto, and BTC usually performs well. As of April 2025, the market generally expects the Fed to begin gradually cutting rates in the second half of the year, which is a mid-term bullish signal for BTC.

5. On-chain Data and Community Momentum

On-chain data shows:

• HODL addresses hit record highs: BTC held unmoved for over 1 year now accounts for 70%.

• Exchange reserves keep declining: Indicates selling pressure in the market is decreasing.

• Lightning Network and Ordinals ecosystem growing rapidly: Enhances BTC’s utility and fee income.

At the same time, on a community level, Bitcoin is no longer exclusive to geek circles but is becoming a global asset. Even on TikTok and IG Threads, BTC discussions are visible, with market penetration continuing to expand.

BTC Price Prediction

Using AI model data calculations and referencing past BTC prices and related information, predictions are made for future prices. This is for data sharing only, not investment advice. See chart below:

BTC Price Trend Forecast

BTC Price Prediction and Confidence Interval

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Summary

In the crypto world, Bitcoin is not the fastest, not the flashiest, nor the most programmable—but it is the purest. Whether it’s for hedging, inflation resistance, censorship resistance, or as a symbol of financial freedom, BTC continues to serve as the core of digital value consensus.
For Web3 players, we can dig for memes, speculate in DeFi, or play GameFi—but the true base layer, long-term belief, and anti-fragile asset still comes back to BTC.