Daily News | US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Increased Holdings of 526 BTCs Yesterday; The Fed is Highly Likely to Maintain August Interest Rates Unchanged

Crypto Daily Digest: The US spot Bitcoin ETF increased its holdings of 526 BTCs yesterday; The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in August is 91.2%; US unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data will be released this Friday

According to CME’s Federal Reserve observation, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in August is 91.2%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 8.8%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until September is 34.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 59.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut is 5.4%.

The USDT minting volume on Ethereum and Tron decreased from $7 billion to $1 billion within six months.

Arthur Hayes said that the new inflation cycle has arrived, and that Bitcoin will be the best haven for wealth.

According to CryptoQuant’s data and analyst opinions, Bitcoin’s computing power has dropped to its lowest level since the FTX crash in December 2022, currently at -7.6%, indicating that Bitcoin prices may have bottomed out. Other indicators, such as exchange reserves and the miner position index, also showed low selling pressure, supporting the view of market bottoms.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, on July 1, US spot Bitcoin ETF data showed that BlackRock increased its holdings of approximately 1366 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $85.9 million; Grayscale reduces holdings of 198 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $12.4 million; and nine Bitcoin ETFs increased their holdings by a total of 526 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $33 million.

The trading volume of BTC and ETH futures contracts decreased by 19.9% and 23.8% respectively in June.

The latest weekly report from CoinShares shows that digital asset investment products experienced fund outflows for the third consecutive week, totaling $30 million.

The Starknet Foundation will allocate an additional 50 million STRK for the DeFi Spring 2.0 program, bringing the total budget to 90 million STRK. The DeFi protocol allows applicants to join DeFi Spring and increase its liquidity to earn supplemental income.

FET started the first phase of the ASI token merger plan with AGIX&OCEAN at 15:00 (UTC) yesterday.

The first phase of TRIAS migration in the AI eco project has been completed, and the TRIAS BSC contract upgrade is about to begin. It is expected to be completed within 1-2 weeks.

The Japanese Web3 Media CoinPost operator, the Japan Web3 Association, announced that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will deliver a speech at the international Web3 conference WebX, which the WebX utive Committee planned and organized.

Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced on the X platform that it will purchase an additional 20.20 BTCs.

US-listed company Kronos Advanced Technologies announced support for the SHIB payment method.

Market Trends: BTC rebounded to $63,000 but was hindered by significant fluctuations in the rise and fall of Altcoins

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded strongly over the weekend, breaking through the downward trend line at the 4H level and suppressing MA60, but this trend did not continue this week and was hindered from taking a break when it hit around $63,000-64,000.

From a purely technical perspective, the upper target is still expected to rise to around $64,500. However, given the current upward gap in CME futures, Bitcoin’s upward momentum is still insufficient. Based on past historical experience, Bitcoin still expects downward exploration support.

It is worth mentioning that the US June ISM manufacturing PMI released last night was 48.5, with an expected 49.1 and a previous value of 48.7. The data and previous value are lower than expected, which is a slight positive for the crypto market. Currently, the macro risk of short-term decline is not significant.

Regarding capital Flow, US spot ETFs have shown a net inflow trend for five consecutive trading days, with 596 and 526 Bitcoin holdings increasing in the past two days, indicating a slight recovery in market sentiment. However, caution should still be exercised against the downward pressure from Mt. Gox’s repayment of Bitcoin debt and the German government’s sell-off starting this month.

In summary, regardless of the macro background or micro trend, Bitcoin lacks the corresponding conditions for a sharp rise or fall, and may maintain a certain adjustment momentum in the short term. The long-term outlook for the future is still optimistic.

Market Hotspots:

Ethereum sector: Spot Ethereum ETFs remain an important driving factor for supporting Ethereum and its sector tokens, with tokens such as ENS, SSV, LDO, and UNI leading recent gains and rebounds. According to the latest analysis, the expected listing time of spot Ethereum ETFs may be postponed from July 2nd to after July 8th, while Gary Gensler, Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), recently stated that it is expected to see spot Ethereum ETFs listed as early as September. This time, the Ethereum sector has remained strong for some time.

SocialFi sector: The TON chain supported by Telegram, which has billions of user traffic, is experiencing a huge explosion, especially the “click-to-earn” game Notcoin (NOT), which has boosted MEME GameFi. Catizen tokens will be launched in July and the SocialFi sector continues to maintain a high market heat.

RWA sector: The Real World Assets (RWA) sector has risen by -0.1% in the past 24 hours, making it a relatively resilient industry. Leading token sectors such as MKR, ONDO, PENDLE, OM, and POLYX have seen increases of -1.39%, -2.94%, -2.47%, 6.56%, and -5.29%, respectively. The RWA sector, along with DePIN, AI, L2, and others, are the new tracks of this bull market. The RWA project carries the function of expanding the adoption rate of crypto technology and products, and has attracted the attention of traditional market veterans.

MEME sector: Recently, the MEME sector has been the first to follow the strong rebound of the market, followed by a significant decline, with much greater volatility than other sectors. Nowadays, MEME has become increasingly sophisticated and complex, no longer serving as a backup option for the overflow of market overheating sentiment. Even though various sectors have generally fallen today, some MEMEs still have risen against the trend. The 24-hour gains of dog-themed MEMEs such as WIF, BONK, PONK, and DOG are 1.53%, 12.97%, and 6.15%, respectively.

Overall, the current macro liquidity environment in the crypto market has not improved. After experiencing eight consecutive months of strong gains, Bitcoin is currently in a wide range of volatility, while sectors such as RWA, SocialFi, and Ethereum have maintained a relatively resilient trend. However, the sustainability of the heat remains to be observed. At present, capital speculation is still cautious, and the issuance of coins for some large projects such as Blast, zkSync, and LayerZero has also sparked controversy. Without wealth creation effects in the market, investors should remain cautious.

Macro: Economic Data Dancing with Elections, Cautiously Viewing Interest Rate Reduction Expectations

Boosted by some investors covering short positions, the June ISM manufacturing PMI data in the United States fell short of market expectations. The three major US stock indexes closed higher yesterday, with the Dow Jones up 0.13% and the S&P 500 up 0.27%. Popular technology stocks performed outstandingly, with Tesla up more than 6%, Apple up nearly 3%, and Microsoft and Amazon up more than 2%. However, the linkage between the crypto and US stock markets weakened and showed a slight correction trend yesterday.

Next, the market has generally focused on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate attitude and the upcoming series of important economic data releases. With a lot of macro data expected this week, especially the US non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday, which is seen as a key indicator of the health of the US economy, this data is expected to provide more clues for whether the Fed will cut interest rates.

It is worth noting that although the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to initiate an easing cycle in September, Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about rate cuts. They emphasized the need to closely monitor changes in inflation and the job market before deciding to cut interest rates. Especially with the recent slowdown in inflation data, although it provides some room for interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve is also concerned that premature rate cuts may trigger new economic risks.

Meanwhile, the US presidential election has also become one of the focal points affecting the direction of financial policy. With the end of the first televised debate on candidates, Trump’s average lead over Biden in national polls has sparked widespread discussion in the market. Trump’s policy proposals, such as extending tax cuts, restricting immigration, and imposing import tariffs, are all considered likely to drive up inflation levels in the United States. This expectation puts pressure on US bond yields. However, the recent fluctuating US economic data has also brought a certain buffering effect to the market, and there is still considerable room for flexible operation of interest rate policies.

In short, this week’s macro market will be full of variables and challenges. Investors need to closely monitor the changes in factors such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate attitude, the release of important economic data, and the progress of the US presidential election. Specifically, regarding the crypto market, the SEC will likely respond to the Ethereum ETF this week. Although it is unlikely to pass directly, any positive news may boost the overall sentiment of the crypto market, and we will maintain close focus on this.