Daily News | Bitcoin Spot ETF Window Period May Be in January Next Year; MicroStrategy Bought BTC Again; Crypto Investment Funds Surged by 96% in November

Crypto Daily Digest: Bitcoin Spot ETF Window Period Is Approaching, MicroStrategy Bought Bitcoin Again

Yesterday, Bloomberg analyst James Seyfart tweeted that the window approval period for Bitcoin spot ETFs is expected to be between January 5th and 10th, 2024. According to SEC documents, the review period for Franklin Dempton and Hashdex will end on January 5th, with Ark/21 Shares having an earliest review date of January 10th.

Meanwhile, another Bloomberg ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, posted on the X platform, stating: “We believe there is still a 90% chance that a spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved before January 10, 2024, which is the same probability as in the past few months. What we are currently focusing on is the influx of more revisions/final documents and confirmation in terms of physical (in kind) or cash (cash) creation.”

But in the debate over exact dates, comments, and timelines, an important point that has been overlooked is that the SEC and issuers are working behind the scenes to prepare these ETFs for this cycle (before January 10, 2024), which most people believe is unlikely to happen.

Regarding this, Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, is quite optimistic compared to the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF.

He emphasized that although there is no internal information about this matter, from all the public content he has seen, the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs is getting closer and closer. He added that he is “very optimistic” about the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs next year. Among the 13 potential Bitcoin ETF issuers, 10 have chosen Coinbase Customer as the custodian.

This means that Coinbase may represent these funds holding billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin. Brian Armstrong does not agree with the statement that concentrating so much Bitcoin in one custodian institution would bring risks, and stated that this is a recognition and trust of Coinbase. He stated that in the long run, the crypto custody business is attractive to many companies and will strengthen the diversity of the eco.

MicroStrategy disclosed that between November 1, 2023 and November 29, 2023, its subsidiaries purchased approximately 16130 bitcoins for approximately $593.3 million in cash, with an average price of approximately $174530 per coin. As of November 29, 2023, MicroStrategy’s subsidiaries held a total of approximately $5.28 billion, with an average purchase price of approximately $30252 per Bitcoin and a total floating profit of $1.221 billion.

Everyone knows that BlackRock holds about 8% of MicroStrategy’s shares. If the spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, MicroStrategy can use the spot to subscribe to the ETF. Behind this is a big move, definitely not buying for the sake of buying as you may see.

In terms of data, according to Immunefi, the losses caused by crypto hackers and fraud cases in November reached $343 million, which is the highest loss month of the year and more than 15 times the loss amount of $22 million in October. So far this year, there have been 296 incidents of crypto hacking and theft, resulting in a total loss of over $1.75 billion.

It is worth noting that the focus of crypto attacks changed in November.

The centralized finance (CeFi) platform has become the main victim, losing more funds than decentralized finance (DeFi). DeFi lost 46.2% ($158.6 million) in 37 events, while CeFi lost 53.8% ($184.4 million) in 4 events. Compared to fraud, hacker attacks continue to dominate in crypto attacks, with 18 hacking incidents in November causing losses of over $335 million and approximately 23 fraud incidents resulting in losses worth nearly $7.5 million.

On November 30th, according to Cointelgraph citing data compiled by CertiK, the digital asset sector has faced losses of $1.5 billion in 2023.

Ronghui Gu, co-founder of CertiK, pointed out that although previous incidents have exposed security issues related to SIM card replacement and multi signature, the industry still cannot forgive the continued occurrence of such incidents. Prior to September 2023, crypto hacking, vulnerability exploitation, and fraud incidents had resulted in nearly $1 billion in losses.

In the fourth quarter, new events such as Poloniex exploitation and HECO Chain cross chain bridge hacker attacks dealt a heavy blow to the crypto industry, with losses exceeding $100 million and $80 million, respectively.

According to a post by Coingecko, since the birth of the GameFi concept, 2127 web3 games have failed in the past 5 years, accounting for 75.5% of the total number of GameFi launches. Among them, based on the number of failed Web3 games compared to the number of releases, the average annual failure rate of Web3 games from 2018 to 2023 was 80.8%.

For the definition of failure, Coingecko believes that GameFi with an average decrease in active users from peak to over 99% within 14 days should be considered a failure.

However, it is worth noting that RootData data shows that investment in the GameFi sector rebounded in October, with financing amounts exceeding $100 million, a 61% increase from $67 million in September, and financing amounts in July and August this year were less than $15 million. In addition, positive events for GameFi emerged in a centralized manner in November, with Pixels, Illuvium, Gala Games, TreasureDAO, and others all releasing positive news in November. In addition, the entry of traditional gaming giants such as Unisoft has raised users’ expectations for the playability of blockchain games.

There has also been significant improvement in venture capital financing. According to data released by The Block’s research director, Two, on the X platform, venture capital in the blockchain field surged by 96% month on month in November, reaching a new high in six months. According to the chart data, the total financing amount in the blockchain field since November has been $1.09 billion, with the infrastructure sector accounting for the highest proportion at $413 million, accounting for 37.9%.

Over the past 12 hours, FTX and Alameda Research have transferred 8 assets worth $10.8 million to Wintermute, Binance, and Coinbase, including 10 million $GMT (approximately $2.58 million), 407000 $UNI (approximately $2.41 million), 5.23 million $SYN (approximately $2.25 million), 8.76 million $KLAY (approximately $1.64 million), and 3.87 million $FTM (approximately $1.18 million) 77.77 billion SHIBs ($644000) and a small amount of $ARB and $OP.

On December 1st, DYdX will unlock 152 million DYDXs (approximately $518 million), mainly including shares of investors, founders, consultants, and employees, accounting for 84.41% of the circulating supply.

Today’s Main Token Trends

BTC

Since mid-October, Bitcoin’s weekly trend has seen seven consecutive weeks of growth, a pattern only observed before the bullish market of 2021, followed by a year-long bull market. This month, Optimism continues for the later market, with the bull poised to persist, targeting $37,980, pushing towards $40,495 and $42,015. Long-term bullish targets are set at $120,400 and $128,350.

ETH

The week opened with a retest of the weekly support. In the short term, there’s potential for a direct move towards the $2,135 resistance. The month is expected to witness continued upward momentum, with short-term targets at $2,195, $2,260, $2,331, and $2,384. Long-term projections indicate a potential pullback, with targets at $7,840, $10,645, and $12,383.

RDNT

Representing one of the comprehensive projects, RDNT has steadily dropped from its historical high of $0.4885 to $0.2545. Maintaining a strong support at $0.1864, it has completed a large bottom structure in the past six months. Long-term prospects look positive, targeting historical highs at $0.6449, $0.7974, $0.8934, and a potential move towards $1.

Macro: Slowing inflation, PCE hitting a new low, the Federal Reserve may continue to retain the option of raising interest rates

On Thursday, the core PCE annual rate for October in the United States recorded a consistent 3.5%, the lowest since April 2021, indicating that inflation and the labor market in the United States continue to slow down.

The US dollar index continued its upward trend and remained stable above the 103 level, reaching an intraday high of 103.58 at one point. It ultimately closed up 0.66% at 103.51, still the worst monthly performance in a year.

The US Treasury yield has rebounded, with the 10-year US Treasury yield returning above the 4.3% mark and ultimately closing at 4.330%; The two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rates, rose sharply during the US market and briefly stood above 4.7%, but failed to stabilize and ultimately closed at 4.695%.

The trend of the three major US stock indexes has diverged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.47%, the Nasdaq down 0.23%, the S&P 500 Index up 0.38%, and the S&P 500 Index up 8.9% in November, marking the largest monthly increase since July 2022.

Due to the upward pressure on gold from the US dollar and US bond yields, spot gold fell below the 2040 mark and briefly fell to an intraday low of $2031.79 during trading, ultimately closing 0.37% lower at $2036.27 per ounce; The trend of spot silver and gold is inconsistent. Although they have repeatedly hit the $25 mark during the trading session, they have risen significantly and exceeded 1% in the US market, ultimately closing up 1.01% at $25.27 per ounce.

San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley said it is still too early to determine whether the Fed has ended interest rate hikes, and there is currently no consideration of lowering interest rates; New York Fed Chairman Williams believes that currently at or near the peak of interest rates, stubborn inflation may require another rate hike.

However, US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that he does not believe further aggressive monetary tightening is necessary and that the US will achieve a good soft landing.

Starting from this Saturday (December 2nd), the Federal Reserve will enter a period of silence. Based on the speeches of Federal Reserve officials this week, they have changed their tone and are gradually approaching the topic that the market has been discussing for a long time: when will the Federal Reserve start cutting interest rates?

In recent days, several Federal Reserve officials, including six decision-makers who will have FOMC voting rights next year, have expressed satisfaction with maintaining interest rate stability at the December meeting, inspired by the downward trend in inflation and data indicating economic slowdown.

Although Federal Reserve officials are not particularly interested in discussing interest rate cuts, the market has paid special attention to the remarks of Federal Reserve Director Waller. Waller is a closely watched inflation hawk on Wall Street, acknowledging that if inflation continues to decline, the Federal Reserve will consider lowering interest rates, which aligns with the typical policy guidelines they use.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech at Bellman College in Atlanta on Friday and attend a fireside conversation with the school’s president, Helene Gayle. He is more likely to reiterate that it is too early to declare victory now, rather than discussing interest rate cuts. Concerns about potential inflation resurgence may lead FOMC to continue predicting that interest rates in 2024 will be much higher than market pricing. Earlier this month, Powell reminded the market that the Federal Reserve still tends to further raise interest rates.

Economists said on Thursday that they should not expect Powell to make any statements to support the market’s growing expectations for a rate cut in March next year. Powell is likely “inclined to oppose the idea of an upcoming interest rate cut,” said Jonathan Miller, senior US economist at Barclays Bank in New York.

Ian Shepherdson, Chief Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that Powell will repeat that “the Federal Reserve still retains the option of raising interest rates again, but the market has shifted and will not listen to him again.”

Presently, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting in March next year has increased to 50%, and the rate cut in May has been fully priced. The market believes that the rate cut before the end of next year will exceed 100 basis points. On the contrary, according to the median forecast released by Federal Reserve officials in September, they expect interest rates to be 5-5.25% by the end of 2024, only 25 basis points lower than current levels.

Some predictions on Wall Street are even bolder. Deutsche Bank predicts a mild recession next year and reiterated its view this week that the Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting interest rates in June next year, with a total of 175 basis points by the end of the year. Earlier, billionaire investor Bill Ackman believed that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates as early as the first quarter of 2024.