Analysis of the Impact of Tariff Policies on Bitcoin Mining

Summary

In April 2025, the U.S. government launched a "reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on global trading partners, triggering severe fluctuations in global risk assets. The Bitcoin mining industry, which relies on physical mining machines, faced direct impacts. Mining machine manufacturers are under pressure from both supply and demand sides, experiencing the largest recent stock price declines. Self-operated mining farms are mainly affected by supply-side issues, while large mining farms are relatively less impacted. Cloud computing mining farms are the least affected, as their business model has a certain capacity for risk transfer.

Tariff policies may lead to a reshaping of the Bitcoin mining landscape, with American mining companies potentially losing their influence. However, in the long run, institutional investors represented by Bitcoin ETFs and publicly listed companies have become the dominant force in the market, likely to hedge against supply-side pressure. Bitcoin mining is currently at a critical juncture of policy reshaping and structural transfer, requiring close attention to the rebalancing of the industry chain brought about by policy evolution and hash power migration.

Analysis of the Impact of Tariffs on Various Sectors of Bitcoin Mining

mining machine manufacturers

The manufacturers of mining machines are the most affected by the tariff policies, and their stock prices have recently seen the most significant decline. The main reason:

1. Supply side: Chip foundries face high tariffs, which may increase upstream costs.

2. Demand Side: American mining farms face high tariffs when purchasing mining machines, which may shrink orders.

3. Long-term impact: Mining machine manufacturers may consider layout capacity in tariff-friendly areas.

self-operated mining site

The self-operated mining farms are mainly affected by the supply side, while the business of selling Bitcoin to exchanges is less affected.

1. Large mining farms: adopting a coin hoarding strategy, less affected by the decline in Bitcoin prices.

2. Small mining farms: Cash flow is tight, and they may be forced to adopt a "mine and sell" strategy, exacerbating market selling pressure.

3. Long-term impact: The depreciation cycle of mining machines is about 2.5-3 years, with increasing pressure on continuous capital expenditure.

Cloud Mining Farm

The cloud mining farm is relatively least affected by tariff policies.

1. Business Model: Transfer the cost of mining machines to customers through service fees, with a risk buffer mechanism.

2. Income-driven: Mainly driven by the total network computing power, which has recently reached an all-time high.

3. Cost Control: Reduce operational costs by optimizing site selection, maintaining flexibility in computing power deployment.

The Impact of Reshaping Bitcoin Mining Landscape on Coin Prices

1. Short term: The influence of U.S. mining companies may decline, and new entrants may adopt a "mine, extract, and sell" strategy, putting pressure on coin prices.

2. Long-term: Institutional investors represented by Bitcoin ETFs and publicly listed companies have become the dominant force in the market, and their continuous buying capacity is expected to hedge supply pressure.

Conclusion

Tariff policies pose a dual challenge of upstream costs and geopolitical layout to Bitcoin mining. Mining participants need to reassess the importance of policies and pay attention to factors such as policy trends, geopolitical security, energy dispatch, and manufacturing stability. Bitcoin mining is currently in a critical period of policy reshaping and structural transfer, and global investors need to closely monitor the industrial chain rebalancing brought about by policy evolution and hash power migration.