Analysis of Multiple Factors Behind the Recent Surge of the Sui Ecosystem

Recently, the Sui ecosystem has experienced significant growth, with its governance token SUI rising over 75% within a week, far exceeding the market average. This phenomenon is driven by multiple factors, including speculative enthusiasm triggered by market rumors, significant changes in capital flow, and the ongoing improvement of the ecosystem's fundamentals. This article will delve into the funding trends behind SUI's recent surge, key catalysts, on-chain data performance, and potential risks.

Fund Flow Analysis

From the perspective of on-chain capital flow, Sui has shown a net outflow of 32 million USD in the past three months, but this figure is not considered high. The changes in on-chain capital over the past month and the past week are even more negligible, and it has not even made it into the top twenty in the public chain rankings.

However, the capital flow of the exchange shows a significant influx of funds into the Sui ecosystem. Data indicates that in the past seven days, the spot capital inflow of SUI reached 62.86 million USD, ranking fourth among all cryptocurrencies. In terms of contract capital inflow, several tokens from the Sui network ecosystem, such as WAL, MEMEFI, and CETUS, have entered the top ten, reflecting an increase in the activity of the Sui ecosystem.

The contract holdings of SUI tokens began to surge on April 21, increasing from $700 million to $1.419 billion within a week, nearing the historical high of $1.5 billion. In the Sui ecosystem, nearly 20% of the tokens have increased by over 100% in the past week, and 37.5% of the tokens have increased by over 50%, indicating a comprehensive upward trend.

Market Sentiment Driving Factors

On April 21, mainstream tokens generally began to rebound, and the rise of Sui was also initiated. Subsequently, several positive news items were released, but it is difficult to determine whether these news items are the real driving force behind the rise or a "smoke screen" that accompanies the price increase.

The main benefits include:

1. Pokémon collaboration rumors: Originating from the Pokémon HOME app update privacy policy, listing Sui-related companies as authorized developers.

2. Payment Sector Cooperation: Sui announced a partnership with a financial platform to launch the Sui branded virtual Mastercard in Europe.

3. ETF-related news: The news about 21Shares establishing the "SUI ETF" statutory trust entity has been brought back to attention.

4. Other developments: including collaboration with the Athens Stock Exchange Group, Nautilus launching off-chain privacy solutions, etc.

These advancements cover multiple areas such as Web3 games, privacy, and development environments, creating an overall favorable situation.

Surge in DEX Trading Volume and Ecological Development

Since April, the DEX trading volume on the Sui network has remained high, reaching a historic peak of $998 million on March 29. The leading project in the ecosystem, Cetus Protocol, has driven overall growth, with a 84.5% increase in trading volume over the past week. Another important contributor, Kriya, contributed $780 million in trading volume in a single day on March 29.

The surge in trading volume is mainly attributed to the airdrop activity of Walrus. On March 27, the decentralized storage project Walrus launched an airdrop, with a trading volume reaching $380 million on the same day.

In terms of developer activity, the Sui network's GitHub commit frequency peaked in December 2024, maintaining over 500 commits per week, far surpassing the levels of Solana and Aptos.

Potential Risks

1. Token unlocking pressure: SUI has tens of millions of tokens unlocked every week, which creates ongoing supply pressure in the market.

2. Unbalanced ecological development: The rise of the Sui ecosystem is mainly led by DEX and infrastructure projects, while application and gaming projects have not performed prominently. Tokens with a market capitalization of over 10 million USD are still primarily early projects.

3. Lack of blockbuster applications: Although there has been development in areas such as decentralized storage, DeFi, and gaming, there is still a lack of "viral" applications that can attract a large number of users.

Conclusion

The recent surge of the Sui ecosystem is the result of a combination of market speculation, influx of funds, expectations in the contract market, and fundamental progress. However, while paying attention to price performance, it is also necessary to be vigilant about the selling pressure brought by the continuous unlocking of tokens, and to monitor the further development of the application ecosystem. Whether Sui can convert the current heat into long-term value hinges on its ability to incubate truly attractive blockbuster applications.