AXS price movement analysis: What is the outlook for Axie Infinity?

Axie Infinity is a Web3 game project on the Ronin chain, launched by the Vietnamese team Sky Mavis. Players participate in the game by collecting, breeding, and battling NFT digital pets called "Axies," and can earn tokens AXS and SLP by completing tasks and battling. The game sparked a "Play-to-Earn" craze in 2021, attracting millions of users worldwide and becoming a representative project of GameFi. Axie not only promoted the development of NFTs and blockchain games but also explored new models of decentralized game economies and community governance. AXS is used for both governance and various event rewards within the game ecosystem, connecting players and project parties, and is still regarded as a blue-chip asset in the GameFi ecosystem.

AXS Price Trend

AXS reached a peak in October 2021, with a price hitting around 150 USD. Subsequently, due to the overall decline of the cryptocurrency market and the exposure of Axie's own economic issues, the price of AXS significantly retraced. Entering 2025, AXS continues to face pressure. As of May 13, 2025, the price of AXS has fallen to its lowest point since 2021, currently reported at 3.25 USD, with a circulating market capitalization of 527 million USD.

Despite the official continuous release of game updates (such as the launch of Season 12 of Origins in mid-April and the classic showdown Season 9 in May), the price trend of AXS remains sluggish. It is worth noting that the new game upgrade Atia’s Legacy launched by the Axie team has not significantly boosted the AXS price. As of now, the AXS price fluctuates in the range of 2–3 dollars, slightly under pressure compared to the beginning of the year, but some analysts believe a rebound may occur in the second half of the year.

Official Updates and Tokenomics Adjustments

Recently, several official updates regarding the Axie and Ronin ecosystems are worth paying attention to. In April 2025, the Ronin chain completed the bridge migration with Chainlink CCIP, securely transferring over $450 million in assets to CCIP. This upgrade brought stronger cross-chain security to the Ronin network.

On the gaming side, Sky Mavis will continue to launch events and features in 2024-2025: such as the Classic Showdown Season 9 announced in May 2025 (with a total of 35,000 AXS in rewards), and the Origins season starting in April 2025. These activities aim to increase player engagement, but the short-term impact on the AXS price is limited.

In addition, the Axie team has made adjustments to the economic model. At the beginning of 2024, it was announced that a total cap of 4.4 billion will be implemented for SLP (Smooth Love Potion) and a "stability fund" mechanism, returning 2 tokens to the fund for every 10 SLP burned to control inflation. These measures contribute to the overall economic sustainability. At the same time, AXS itself has a total supply of 270 million, with full circulation expected by 2026, which means the release of tokens will gradually be completed, putting pressure on future prices.

Web3 Game Ecosystem Metrics Support

The player and trading activity within the Axie ecosystem is a crucial factor supporting the market value of AXS. Data shows that Axie had a peak daily active user count of nearly 2.8 million in 2021-2022. Although the number of players has significantly declined since then, the ecosystem remains vast. Research reports indicate that the cumulative trading volume of the NFT market on the Ronin chain has exceeded $4.5 billion, with the Axie series accounting for approximately $4.3 billion in total transaction volume, proving that Axie is still the most popular gaming asset on Ronin.

Globally, the activity level of Web3 games is rapidly increasing: the daily average active wallets reached 7.4 million in 2024, a 421% increase compared to the previous year. These ecological data indicate that despite the sluggish price of AXS, Axie and the entire Web3 gaming sector still have a significant user base and transaction scale, providing long-term support for AXS's market value.

Industry Insights and AXS Price Prediction

There are divergent views in the market regarding the price trend of AXS in 2025. Some analysis firms and forecasting tools hold a cautiously optimistic attitude towards it. For example, technical analysis from a mainstream platform suggests that the price range for AXS in 2025 is approximately between 3.87 and 4.60 USD; another research site predicts an annual trading range of 3.04 to 5.39 USD, with an average annual price of about 4.18 USD.

Relatively optimistic industry forecasts suggest a range of $5–8, with some even predicting it could reach $9–14 in a bull market scenario. On the other hand, some analysts hold a pessimistic view: based on technical wave theory, AXS could oscillate between $0.50 and $6.50 by the end of 2025, dipping as low as around $0.50.

Overall, most institutions expect the average price of AXS in 2025 to be below $10, while the price trend of AXS depends on the overall environment of the crypto and Web3 gaming market.

Axie Infinity Future Outlook

AXS plays a pivotal role in the Web3 gaming economy, connecting players and project governance, and is also the core of the Axie ecosystem's incentive mechanism. The rise of Axie Infinity demonstrates the potential of GameFi tokens to drive player participation and NFT trading; however, it also exposes the risks of unstable economic models.

The research report indicates that the Axie team is committed to continuously improving and expanding its IP ecosystem, but the long-term stability of the token economy still faces challenges. To address this, the project team strives to optimize the economic system by introducing mechanisms such as SLP caps and stabilization funds. In the future, the sustained value of AXS will depend on the combined effects of Axie game innovations, player growth, and adjustments to token policies.

From a broader perspective, if the Web3 gaming industry continues to grow, AXS will still have long-term significance as a representative of the early leading GameFi projects; However, to ensure that the GameFi model is sustainable, both the financial incentives and the player community need to be further matured and solidified.

Risk Warning: Market volatility is severe, and changes in regulatory policies or technical risks may affect the price trend and application prospects of AXS.

Author: Icing, Gate.io researcher *This article only represents the author's views and does not constitute any trading advice. Investment carries risks, and users should make careful decisions. *The content of this article is original and the copyright belongs to Gate.io. If you need to reprint it, please indicate the author and source; otherwise, legal responsibility will be pursued.