Metrics Ventures Market Observation: New Momentum Will Gestate in Volatility

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Review and Commentary on the Overall Market Situation and Market Trends:

The past month has been a torment for most position holders. The repeated convergence of Volatility and the formation of asset prices have resonated in a downward trend, and they plummeted in early July under various external pressures and stimuli, with a daily decline in open interest close to that of FTX. As of the writing of this monthly report, the market stabilized on Friday's macro data and formed an inertia Rebound on Saturday. The following phenomena have appeared in this round of leverage liquidation:

①A large number of AltCoin stabilized for the first time after a sharp overselling;

② Bitcoin gets support near the middle track of the previous upward channel overlaid with the Miner cost line;

③SOL The overall structure is relatively strong, but ETH has given back all the ETF-induced gains;

Metrics Ventures市场观察:新的动量将于震荡中孕育

As of now, BTC has formed a diffused consolidation structure, but still has not broken the uptrend. Following our analysis in June, the diffusion here is conducive to the reorganization of chips, which is healthy for the long-term trend. Considering that we still believe that a rate cut is inevitable this year, we believe that around $50,000 is a good medium to long-term chip re-absorption position. For most altcoins, we believe that the short-term increase in Volatility does not constitute a reversal trend, but there are also strong coins among them that still need further observation by MM.

All in all, the market is healthier compared to last month, but momentum accumulation still needs to occur in oscillation and re-convergence, and patience is the best policy.

zone Ecology

ETH ecosystem and Defi: Defi zone remains weak, the entire ETH zone lacks rebound strength.

Funds within the circle are attracted to SOL and TON, and there are few buying orders for ETH. Moreover, due to the continuous low on-chain gas fees of ETH, which has been below 10 gwei for a long time, ETH is in a net issuance state, with potential selling pressure 2 times that of BTC.

The net inflow of funds for BTC ETF is $50 billion, which has absorbed the selling pressure of $15 billion GBTC in 6 months. The scale of Grayscale ETH is 1/3 of BTC, which means ETH ETF needs to have 1/3 of the attractiveness of BTC ETF to achieve the same effect as BTC. However, it may be difficult for the inflow of ETH ETF to exceed 1/3 of BTC.

Overall, ETFs will mainly have a net inflow of BTC, with ETH as a secondary option. We believe that the net inflow of funds for ETH will be much worse than BTC, so its price performance will not be as strong as BTC. At the same time, the selling pressure of ETH cannot be absorbed, and the continuous issuance will also weaken the confidence of ETH ETF holders. Therefore, we still do not have a positive outlook for the ETH/BTC trading pair in the medium term.

Layerzero: $ZRO has a good chip structure, and there are almost no chips in the hands of retail investors. There may be more market trends in the future, but we will not allocate at this position again.

TON: As one of the two alpha ecosystems in this round, the TON ecosystem is still worth following. The only secondary target in the TON ecosystem is still $NOT. Buy at the bottom when the market volume increases, and continue to follow in the future.

SOL: Solana is still the ecosystem we are optimistic about in this round, and the strong support level of SOL at 120-130 is still confirmed to be effective. Multicoin Capital will donate 1M worth of SOL to the Sentinel Action Fund (supporting cryptocurrency candidates to enter the U.S. Senate).

In the SOL ecosystem, the relatively good ALPHA targets are $JUP and $JTO.

There are several good memes to follow in the SOL ecosystem: $Billy/$AURA/$Retardio

AI: The AI zone basically followed the market this month, with relatively average performance. However, as the main leader of this round of speculation, we still closely follow the subsequent performance of the AI zone. The leading projects in the zone are TAO and RNDR.

About Us

Metrics Ventures is a data and research-driven encryption asset Secondary MarketLiquidity fund, led by an experienced team of encryption professionals. The team has expertise in Primary Market incubation and Secondary Market trading, and plays an active role in industry development through in-depth on-chain/off-chain data analysis. MVC collaborates with senior influencers in the encryption community to provide long-term empowerment support for projects, such as media and KOL resources, ecological collaboration resources, project strategy, and economic model consulting capabilities.

Welcome everyone to DM and share and discuss insights and ideas about the market and investment of encryption assets.

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If you have: bought sol below 40 / ordi below 25 / inj below 14 / rndr below 3.2 / tia below 10, meet any two of the above conditions, welcome to contact us admin@metrics.ventures, ops@metrics.ventures

BTC-1.45%
SOL-3.32%
ETH-4.9%
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