Current fundamental main line: #降息交易#

1. Previously, #非农数据# was significantly revised down, overturning the prosperous employment situation of the past two months, with data supporting the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts.

2. Last time #CPI# was slightly lower than expected, proving that #通胀# is not as severe as imagined, which also supports a rate cut.

3. #PPI# as a Samsung data, significantly exceeded expectations, and the inflation issue has been brought back to the forefront.

Next Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak publicly. At this juncture, his stance is crucial. Any hawkish remarks will dampen expectations for interest rate cuts, which could lead to a significant decline in the market that has already priced in at least two rate cuts.

5. In a general direction, Trump hopes to restart American manufacturing, which requires support from a #weak dollar. Currently, it seems that the second phase of Trump is utilizing power to an even greater extent. I tend to believe that history will continue to repeat itself, and Trump will continue to get what he wants, followed by a focus on interest rate cuts and shorting dollar trades.

6. #原油 马上走出夏日强需求期，# OPEC is also increasing production, and it is expected that oil prices will continue to trend downward, so the inflation issue may not pose a long-term threat.

7. Subsequent major data performance is crucial (non-farm, CPI). The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is almost 100%, and the consideration now is whether it will be a 25 BP cut or a 50 BP cut. The question for the year is whether it will be a 50 BP cut or a 75 BP cut.

8. For #BTC 、# ETH, the impact of hot money from the interest rate cut cycle has not yet arrived. It is inclined to believe that the bull market will continue, although there may be a significant correction due to profit-taking. However, sufficient turnover is a good thing for the market.