Great example of why I personally find it difficult to buy high MC tokens that have been up only.

I passed on GP around $3.50 which was the "wrong" decision considering it almost doubled from there. But I passed because it didn't fit my personal risk management. This fall from $7 to $3 could have just as easily been a fall from $3 to $1.50 and I'd have been pissed if I bought that, just like anyone who bought $4+ and held is pissed now.

Inevitable that up only charts get a correction at some point, even if they're fundamentally sound (like GP is) simply because there's so many holders so deeply in profit and that positioning has never been reset. You get cascade sell offs as more and more people leave because they don't want to roundtrip their uPNL.

Basically my point here is that buying into an up only chart is tricky because it's not a question of if a correction will come, but when. You might buy well before that part and be ok or it might correct right after you buy, there's really no way to know at the time you're buying.

Personally that's just not something that fits into my risk framework and I would rather just miss out than take a risk I don't have a good way of managing. It's especially difficult for me on something like GP where the thesis is based on fundamentals, not price, so there's no price level that becomes an invalidation, I would quite literally just hold it to zero as long as the fundamentals were unchanged.

If you're going to buy into an up only chart, either do it at a low enough MC that there's not a ton of uPNL yet or try and come up with some technical triggers for short/mid term invalidation like momentum loss, trend loss, etc. Even when the long term fundamental case is bullish, short/mid term price can diverge significantly bearish for a while. This tweet is about protecting yourself from bag holding those moves.

Also just to be clear, this isn't a GP bear post and it isn't grave dancing on anyone who bought above here, I'm simply using GP since I think it makes a great case study on risk management for these types of things.