Crypto Market Analysis: Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Focus on CME Gaps, Alts May Experience Rotation Market

Market Observation

Core inflation data in the U.S. has been below expectations for five consecutive months, but there is significant divergence in market views on future trends. Some analysts believe that the lagging effects of tariffs may manifest in the coming months, bringing greater price pressure. Another viewpoint emphasizes that in an environment of weak demand, corporate pricing will tend to be restrained. This divergence is also reflected within the Federal Reserve: some officials suggest that the threshold for lowering interest rates may be reduced, while others advocate for maintaining a tighter policy for a longer period. Currently, the Federal Reserve seems to lean towards a wait-and-see approach and emphasizes the importance of being wary of misleading short-term data and maintaining central bank independence.

In terms of regulation, the U.S. Congress has accelerated the legislative process by establishing "Cryptocurrency Week". Among them, the "GENIUS Act" is seen as a core pillar of the regulatory system, which will bring the hundreds of billions of dollars in the stablecoin market under regulatory frameworks, requiring reserves to be held in cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bills. This initiative not only regulates the market but may also achieve dual strategic objectives: on one hand, it consolidates the dollar's digital dominance by supporting compliant stablecoins, and on the other hand, it creates significant demand for U.S. Treasury bills, easing fiscal deficit pressures. Furthermore, this shift in regulatory paradigm may strengthen Bitcoin's position as a digital gold asset allocation.

Bitcoin has entered a correction phase after reaching a historic high of $123,000. Multiple analysts are focusing on the technical repair of the CME futures gap, predicting that the price of Bitcoin may pull back to the range of $113,800 to $117,000 to fill the gap, after which it may experience a new round of increases. A market data analysis platform indicates that the current market has not yet peaked, and while the profit indicator for short-term holders is in an overheated stage, market tops typically lag behind, with the next key level being $136,000.

Ethereum's market capitalization share has surpassed 10%. Its performance this year, although weaker than Bitcoin, is being driven by the growing demand for stablecoins and tokenization trends. On the technical side, analysts are also paying attention to its CME gap, believing that after filling the gap between $2,830 and $2,925, Ethereum is expected to break above $3,200.

In the altcoin market, some analysts point out that 3-5 weeks after Bitcoin breaks a new high is usually the altcoin market window, and the current cycle may last 1-2 months. Market funds show a clear rotation among sectors: payment tokens are the first to start, large-cap coins are building momentum, and specific ecosystems and Layer 1 projects are forming a relay team. In addition, the popularity of Chinese Meme narratives remains strong, with several related tokens hitting historical highs.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $117,798, up 26.05% year-to-date
• Ethereum: $2,974, down 5.91% year-to-date.
• Fear and Greed Index: 71 (Greed)
• Market share: BTC 62.9%, ETH 10.2%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.4%/50.6%
• Sector Performance: DeFi sector rose by 5.98%; GameFi sector rose by 4.52%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 106,515 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 355 million USD.

ETF Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: +$403 million, continuous 9-day net inflow
• Ethereum ETF: +$192 million, continuous net inflow for 8 days

Today's Preview

• A certain wallet will conduct the Hyperion (RION) Bonding Curve version TGE.
• Eclipse will open ES token airdrop
• The U.S. House Ways and Means Committee will hold a hearing to discuss digital asset tax policies.
• A trading platform will launch Caldera (ERA)
• Plasma: The public sale of XPL is expected to start.
• The Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions.
• New York Fed President Williams will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.
• Multiple projects will undergo token unlocks.

Hot News

• Two suspected related multi-signature wallets spent over 100 million USD to purchase 33,366 ETH.
• Movement completed the buyback of $MOVE, with approximately 180 million tokens repurchased.
• Standard Chartered Bank launches Bitcoin and Ethereum spot trading services for institutional clients
• Ondo Finance announced the acquisition of Strangelove to accelerate the development of its full-stack RWA platform.
• SharpLink recently raised approximately $413 million in net proceeds, of which about $156 million has been invested in Ether.
• A certain whale institution recently reduced its holdings by 15,000 Ether through an intermediary.
• Pump.Fun has reportedly transferred 98,000 SOL to the buyback address, worth approximately 16 million USD.
• The annual core CPI in the U.S. for June is 2.9% unadjusted, and the monthly core CPI is 0.2% adjusted.