Bitcoin wedge and the trading range double break position missing pressure and stop-loss signal strategy

The core logic and the continuation of the bearish trend with lower lows

• Double breakdown and gap risks: Hourly wedge and the trading range have both been broken, with lower lows appearing, indicating a clear bearish trend; the $114,000 gap remains unfilled, becoming a looming threat—if it temporarily breaks below $113,827 and then recovers, it could simultaneously fill the gap and form a short-term bottom; if it breaks down without recovery, it will directly target $112,000, and a 4-hour close below $115,210 will accelerate the decline;

• Clear conditions for stopping the fall: Currently not stopped, a rebound must recover above 117,000 USD to alleviate weakness; otherwise, the oscillation of "not falling to the right level, not bouncing up" will continue, and the gap not being filled remains a downward risk.

Key Point Trading Strategy

• Long conditions:

1. Volume breakout at $115,539 → right-side chase (only taking the rebound), target $115,798 → $116,474, stop loss on breakdown;

2. 113,808 USDT false break recovery → light position try long, false break low point or stop loss at 112,929 USDT, if it doesn't recover then give up;

3. For the conservative type, long position at 112,089 USD, stop loss if it falls below 110,846 USD (buy on the dip after filling the gap, requires extreme market conditions).

• Short selling conditions:

1. The trading volume falls below 114,549 USD → Short on the right side, target 114,888 → 113,799 USD, unable to recover stop loss on the rebound;

2. Shorting lightly at $117,102 (2B false breakout), stop loss at $118,357 (high position short, need weak confirmation);

3. If the 4-hour close is below 115210 dollars → add to the short position, looking down at 112183 dollars, if it breaks, it will be "completely weak".

The inevitability of shape and gap filling.

• Continuity after double breakout:

◦ After the wedge and the trading range break, if there is no strong rebound, the fall trend is hard to change. $114,200 is the short-term support; if it cannot hold, it will accelerate the filling of the gap.

• Attraction of the gap:

◦ The gap of 114,000 USD has not been filled, and it is highly likely to be filled in a weak market. An ideal stop-loss pattern would be a false breakdown that fills the gap and then recovers, otherwise, after filling the gap, it will continue to probe down to 112,000 USD.

Discipline in operations and emotion management

• Don't Panic Confidence:

◦ Short-term fluctuations are severe, but as long as key support (such as $112,183) is not broken, there is a possibility of a rebound, avoid panic selling;

• Rational view of the rebound:

◦ Before recovering 117,000 USD, the rebound is merely a correction. Close long positions when favorable and do not expect a reversal. Set up short positions based on resistance levels.

Summary: In the weak pattern of Bitcoin, it is necessary to closely monitor the gap filling and key support. The core of the operation: short positions should rely on breaking through the trading range of 114549 dollars to follow up, while long positions should wait for a false break below to signal recovery. If it breaks below 112183 dollars, it will completely turn around, and do not go against the trend.