Crypto Market Q3 Macro Research Report: Institutional Driven Selective Bull Run Arrives

1. The macro turning point has arrived: Regulatory warming and policy support resonate.

At the beginning of the third quarter of 2025, the macro landscape has quietly changed. The policy environment that once pushed digital assets to the margins is now transforming into an institutional driving force. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve ending its interest rate hike cycle, fiscal policy returning to a stimulus track, and the acceleration of global crypto regulation towards a "inclusive framework," the crypto market is on the eve of a structural reassessment.

First, the macro liquidity environment in the United States is entering a critical turning point. Although the Federal Reserve continues to emphasize "data dependence," the market has reached a consensus on interest rate cuts in 2025. The government's pressure on the Fed and the politicization of monetary policy tools suggest that the real interest rates in the U.S. will gradually decline from their high levels between the second half of 2025 and 2026. This opens up an upward channel for the valuation of digital assets.

At the same time, the fiscal side is also making efforts simultaneously. The fiscal expansion represented by the "Great American Rescue Plan" has brought about an unprecedented capital release effect. The government is making substantial investments in areas such as manufacturing repatriation, AI infrastructure, and energy independence, forming a "capital flow channel" that spans traditional industries and emerging technology sectors. This not only reshapes the internal circulation structure of the dollar but also indirectly strengthens the marginal demand for digital assets.

The fundamental shift in policy signals is more reflected in the changes in the regulatory structure. The SEC's attitude towards the crypto market has undergone a qualitative change. The approval of the ETH staking ETF marks the first time that regulatory agencies acknowledge that yield-bearing digital assets can enter the traditional financial system. The advancement of the Solana ETF has provided institutional absorption opportunities for projects that were once regarded as "high Beta speculative chains." The SEC is working on establishing a unified standard for simplifying token ETF approvals, intending to create a replicable and scalable channel for compliant financial products. This represents a fundamental shift in regulatory logic from "firewalls" to "pipeline engineering."

The compliance race in the Asia region is also heating up. Financial hubs like Hong Kong, Singapore, and the UAE are vying for the compliance dividends of stablecoins, payment licenses, and Web3 innovation projects. Sovereign capital and internet giants are accelerating their integration, and stablecoins are no longer just trading tools but are becoming part of payment networks, corporate settlements, and even national financial strategies.

The risk appetite in the traditional financial market is also showing signs of recovery. Tech stocks and emerging assets have rebounded in sync, the IPO market is warming up, and trading platform user activity has increased, signaling that risk capital is flowing back. Capital is no longer solely focused on AI and biotechnology, but is beginning to re-evaluate blockchain, encryption finance, and on-chain structural yield assets.

Under the dual driving force of policy and market, the brewing of a new bull run is not driven by sentiment, but rather a value reassessment process driven by the system. The global capital market has begun to "pay a premium for deterministic assets," and the spring of the crypto market is returning in a more gentle yet more powerful manner.

2. Structural Turnover: Enterprises and Institutions Leading the Next Bull Run

The most noteworthy structural change in the current crypto market is that chips are shifting from retail and short-term funds into the hands of long-term holders, corporate treasuries, and financial institutions. After two years of clearing and restructuring, the participant structure in the crypto market is undergoing a historic "reshuffle": users driven by speculation are gradually being marginalized, while institutions and enterprises focused on allocation are becoming the decisive force driving the next bull run.

The performance of Bitcoin speaks for itself. Despite the price trend being relatively calm, its circulating chips are accelerating the "locking up" process. The total amount of Bitcoin purchased by listed companies in the past three quarters has surpassed the net buying scale of ETFs during the same period. Some enterprises view Bitcoin as a "strategic cash substitute" rather than a short-term asset allocation tool. Behind this is a deep awareness of the expectations for global currency devaluation and a proactive response to the incentive structures of products like ETFs.

Financial infrastructure is clearing obstacles for institutional capital to accelerate inflow. The approval of Ethereum staking ETFs means that institutions are beginning to incorporate "on-chain yield assets" into traditional portfolios. The anticipated approval of Solana spot ETFs further expands the possibilities. Once the staking yield mechanism is packaged and absorbed by ETFs, it will fundamentally change traditional asset managers' perception of crypto assets as "non-yielding and purely volatile," prompting institutions to shift from risk hedging to yield allocation.

Companies are directly participating in the on-chain financial market, breaking the traditional separation structure between "over-the-counter investment" and the on-chain world. Some companies are spending huge sums on ecological project acquisitions and platform stock buybacks, representing that they are actively participating in the construction of a new generation of crypto financial ecology. This is no longer the logic of venture capital participating in startup projects, but a capital injection with the color of "industry mergers and acquisitions" and "strategic layout", intending to lock in the core asset rights and income distribution rights of new financial infrastructure.

In the field of derivatives and on-chain liquidity, traditional finance is also actively positioning itself. The trading volume of crypto asset futures on exchanges has reached new highs, indicating that traditional institutions have included crypto assets in their strategic models. Hedge funds, structured product providers, and multi-strategy CTA funds are continuously entering, operating based on volatility arbitrage, capital structure games, and quantitative factor models, fundamentally enhancing "liquidity density" and "market depth" for the market.

From the perspective of structural turnover, the significant decline in the activity of retail investors and short-term players further reinforces the aforementioned trend. On-chain data shows that the proportion of short-term holders continues to decline, the activity of early whale wallets has decreased, and on-chain search and wallet interaction data have stabilized, indicating that the market is in a "turnover sedimentation period". The chips are no longer in the hands of retail investors, while institutions are quietly "building their positions".

The "productization capability" of financial institutions is also rapidly being implemented. From traditional banks to emerging retail financial platforms, all are expanding their capabilities in trading, staking, lending, and payment of crypto assets. This not only enables crypto assets to truly achieve "usability in the fiat currency system" but also provides them with richer financial attributes. In the future, mainstream crypto assets may no longer be just "volatile digital assets" but will become a "configurable asset class"—a complete financial ecosystem with derivatives markets, payment scenarios, yield structures, and credit ratings.

This round of structural turnover is essentially a deep expansion of the "financial commodification" of encryption assets, representing a complete reshaping of the value discovery logic. The dominant players in the market are no longer the "quick money crowd" driven by emotions and trends, but rather institutions and enterprises with medium to long-term strategic planning, clear allocation logic, and stable funding structures. A truly institutionalized and structured bull run is quietly brewing, which will be more solid, more lasting, and more thorough.

3. The New Era of Shanzhai Season: From General Surge to "Selective Bull Run"

The "altcoin season" of 2025 has entered a new phase: the broad-based rally is no more, replaced by a "selective bull run" driven by narratives such as ETFs, real returns, and institutional adoption. This is a sign of the crypto market gradually maturing and an inevitable result of the capital selection mechanism after the market returns to rationality.

From a structural signal perspective, the chips of mainstream altcoins have completed a new round of consolidation. The ETH/BTC pair has welcomed a strong rebound for the first time after several weeks of decline, with whale addresses accumulating a large amount of ETH in a short period, and large on-chain transactions occurring frequently, indicating that major funds have begun to reprice primary assets like Ethereum. Retail investor sentiment remains low, but this instead creates an ideal "low interference" environment for the next market cycle: no overheated emotions, no retail explosion, making it easier for institutional rhythms to dominate the market.

This time's altcoin market will be a "everyone flying their own way". ETF applications have become the anchor point for a new round of thematic structures. Especially Solana's spot ETF, which is seen as the next "market consensus event". With the staking mechanism expected to be incorporated into the ETF structure, its "quasi-dividend asset" attribute is attracting a large amount of capital for preemptive positioning. This narrative not only boosts the SOL spot itself but also affects the governance tokens of its staking ecosystem. It is foreseeable that in this new narrative cycle, asset performance will revolve around "whether there is ETF potential, whether there is real income distribution capability, and whether it can attract institutional allocation", rather than a single wave of market driving all tokens up. Instead, it will be a differentiated evolution where the strong remain strong and the weak are eliminated.

DeFi is also an important field in this round of "selective bull run", but its logic has fundamentally changed. Users are beginning to shift from "point airdrop DeFi" to "cash flow DeFi", with protocol income, stablecoin yield strategies, and re-staking mechanisms becoming the core indicators for assessing asset value. Liquidity providers are no longer blindly chasing high APY bait, but are placing greater importance on strategy transparency, yield sustainability, and potential risk structures. This shift has led to the emergence of a new batch of projects that do not rely on aggressive marketing or hype, but instead attract capital through innovative designs such as structured yield products and fixed-rate vaults.

The choice of capital has also become more "realistic." Stablecoin strategies backed by real-world assets (RWA) have begun to gain favor among institutions, and some protocols are attempting to create "quasi-government bond products" on-chain. Cross-chain liquidity integration and user experience integration have also become key factors determining the direction of funds, with middleware projects emerging as new hubs for capital concentration through seamless bridging and embedded DeFi capabilities. It can be said that in such a "selective bull run," it is no longer the L1 public chains themselves that dominate the trend, but rather the infrastructure and composable protocols built around them that have become the new core of valuation.

The speculative part of the market is also undergoing a shift. While meme coins still have popularity, the era of "everyone pulling the market up" is long gone. Instead, we see the rise of the "platform rotation trading" strategy, which carries extremely high risks and lacks sustainability. This means that even though speculative hotspots still exist, mainstream capital's interest has clearly diverged. Capital is more inclined to allocate to projects that can provide sustainable returns, have real users, and are supported by strong narratives, preferring to give up explosive returns in exchange for a more certain growth path.

In summary, the core characteristic of this round of altcoin season lies in "which assets have the potential to be integrated into traditional financial logic." From changes in ETF structures, re-staking yield models, to simplified cross-chain UX, and the integration of RWA with institutional credit infrastructure, the crypto market is ushering in a deep value reassessment cycle. A selective bull run is not a weakening of the bull market, but rather an upgrade of the bull market. The future will no longer belong to the game of fooling others, but to those who can read the narrative logic in advance, understand the financial structure, and are willing to quietly accumulate in a "quiet market."

4. Q3 Investment Framework: From Core Allocation to Event-Driven

In the third quarter of 2025, market positioning must find a balance between "core configuration stability" and "event-driven local outbreaks." From the long-term configuration of Bitcoin to theme trading of Solana ETF, and then to the rotation strategy of DeFi real yield protocols and RWA vaults, a layered and adaptive asset allocation framework has become a necessary prerequisite for navigating the volatility of the third quarter.

First of all, Bitcoin remains the first choice for core positions. In an environment where there has been no substantial reversal in ETF inflows, corporate treasuries are continuously increasing their holdings, and the Federal Reserve's policies are signaling dovish tendencies, BTC demonstrates strong resilience and a capital siphoning effect. Even if Bitcoin has not been able to reach new highs temporarily, its chip structure and capital attributes determine that it remains the most stable base asset in the current cycle.

In the rotation logic of mainstream assets, Solana is undoubtedly the most thematic explosive target in Q3. Several leading institutions have submitted SOL spot ETF applications, and the approval window is expected to close around September. As the staking mechanism is likely to be included in the ETF structure, its "quasi-dividend asset" attribute is attracting a large amount of capital for preemptive layout.