The short-term results of the talks may extend the tariff truce period. Analysts generally believe that both sides are most likely to reach a tariff extension agreement for 3 to 6 months, allowing time for subsequent negotiations. The fundamental contradictions between China and the United States in areas such as technological competition and supply chain security are difficult to reconcile in the short term, making the possibility of a comprehensive agreement low, but partial framework consensus may be reached. Structural differences are unlikely to be resolved in the short term, posing long-term challenges.

If the negotiations go smoothly, it will alleviate the pressure on the global supply chain, benefiting export-oriented companies in textiles and electromechanics, as well as technology industries such as semiconductors. Conversely, if the negotiations break down, it may lead to an escalation of the trade war, driving up global inflation, which in turn affects the development of the global economy. A visit by a delegation of American business representatives to China may facilitate some commercial cooperation, such as Boeing aircraft orders, but it is greatly influenced by political factors.
Overall, the third round of economic and trade talks between China and the United States held in Sweden is expected to make progress on short-term issues such as the extension of tariffs, but resolving long-term structural problems will still require more time and political will.
The international community generally expects China and the United States to reduce friction through dialogue, injecting stability into the global economy.
If the China-US economic and trade talks release positive news, it may have the following impacts on the cryptocurrency market:
Market sentiment boosts and risk appetite increase:
The easing of China-U.S. economic and trade relations will significantly boost market risk appetite, and cryptocurrencies, as typical high-risk assets, will benefit notably. More funds may shift from traditional safe-haven assets to high-risk areas such as cryptocurrencies, driving up cryptocurrency prices.
Macroeconomic Environment and Policy Interaction Effects:
After the easing of tariffs, the US dollar index may rebound, and the RMB exchange rate will strengthen simultaneously. If expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut rise, the easing of dollar liquidity may further drive up crypto assets. At the same time, the cancellation of tariffs directly benefits industries reliant on China-U.S. trade, and the growth of overseas revenue for related companies may drive on-chain capital flow, indirectly promoting the application of cryptocurrencies in cross-border payments and supply chain finance.
Regulatory Policies and Market Expectations:
The improvement in Sino-US economic and trade relations has reduced the extreme risk of geopolitical conflicts. The risk-averse sentiment in the crypto market, which had previously been caused by trade frictions, has eased, and institutional investors' confidence in crypto assets has strengthened, which could accelerate their positioning in the crypto market.
If the China-U.S. economic and trade talks do not release positive news, or even encounter unfavorable situations such as a breakdown in negotiations, the crypto market may face the following risks:
Market correction pressure:
The risk-off sentiment for risk assets may rekindle, leading investors to sell off high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, resulting in a decline in cryptocurrency prices.
Policy uncertainty persists:
The uncertainty of trade negotiations may limit the long-term upside potential of the cryptocurrency market, and investors may become more cautious, reducing their investments in the cryptocurrency market.
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