Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction: The MVRV model predicts a rise to $130,000, with a 30-day target of $140,000.

Well-known on-chain analyst Ali Martinez predicts that Bitcoin is likely to rise to $130,000 based on the MVRV price band model. However, the prerequisite is that its price must stay above $110,000. If it loses this critical support level, Bitcoin may face a deep pullback to $88,000 or even $68,000. Current market sentiment leans towards extreme greed, and investor confidence continues to rise.

$110,000 is a key support level for Bitcoin

In a post on X platform on July 26, on-chain analyst Ali Martinez stated that according to the MVRV price band model provided by Glassnode, Bitcoin is currently at a critical turning point. This model assesses whether the current price of Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued by analyzing the "Market Value to Realized Value ratio" (MVRV).

As of July 23, the price of Bitcoin reached approximately $118,782 and is approaching the +1.0σ price band in the MVRV model ($130,756), which is generally regarded as an extremely optimistic range in the market and is expected to become the next resistance target.

However, the +0.5σ price band ($109,858) in the MVRV model is currently the most critical support area. Martinez emphasized that if the Bitcoin price falls below the $110,000 support level, this upward trend may become invalid, and the price could potentially drop to the average band (mean) at $88,960, or even fall to $68,062 at the -0.5σ level.

Investor confidence rises, market sentiment tends towards greed

The MVRV model also reveals the increasing investor confidence in the Bitcoin market. The current "realized price" of Bitcoin (i.e., the average purchase cost of all coin holders) is $50,831, while the current price is well above this level, indicating that most investors are in a profitable state.

In addition, according to data from Coincodex, the current market greed index has reached 72, bordering on "extreme greed." Although the 24-hour trading volume has dropped by 53.39% to $4.798 billion, the price remains around $118,178, indicating that bullish momentum is still ongoing.

Coincodex predicts that Bitcoin will continue its rising trend in the short term:

  • In 5 days: The price is expected to reach $122,019
  • Within 30 days: Expected to pump to $141,075

Conclusion: The current Bitcoin price is operating within the key range of the MVRV model, with the $110,000 support level becoming a crucial threshold for determining the subsequent trend. If this level is held, Bitcoin is expected to challenge $130,000 or even higher levels. It is recommended that crypto investors closely monitor the dynamics of this support zone to respond to potential volatility.

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