Next week, macroeconomic data will be released intensively, and the market still expects the Fed to remain inactive again.

On July 27, amid escalating political pressure, changes in trade policy, and conflicting economic signals, Fed Chairman Powell and his colleagues will enter a monetary policy meeting next week. This decision coincides with a rare data-intensive week, as the U.S. government will consecutively release GDP, employment reports, and the Fed's core inflation indicators. Although the market generally expects the Fed to remain on hold again, this series of data may reshape the policy path. Economists predict that the U.S. Q2 GDP annualized growth rate to be released next Wednesday is expected to reach 2.4% (a significant improvement from the contraction of 0.5% in Q1), mainly due to a sharp narrowing of the trade deficit. The July non-farm report to be released on Friday is expected to confirm that corporate hiring is becoming more cautious. After a surge in employment in the education sector in June pushed the data up, job additions this month are expected to slow down, with the unemployment rate possibly rising slightly to 4.2%. The U.S. government’s June personal income and spending report is expected to show that the core inflation indicator favored by the Fed has slightly accelerated month-on-month, indicating that tariffs are gradually being passed on to consumers. (Jin10)