#PI# Let's briefly talk about the trends in the crypto world.

1: The Shanzhai Prosperity Index has remained above 90 for 5 consecutive days, maintaining the previous view: that is, this phase is the final stage of the current bull market. The first stage of this bull market is the rise from early October 2023 to the end of March 2024; the second stage is from September 2024 to December 2024, and the third stage begins with a surge in June 2025.
2: The third stage is also divided into the solo dance of Bitcoin and the small stage cycle of altcoin rebounds. From May to June, it mainly focuses on Bitcoin's solo performance, and in early July, a spiral upward drive between Bitcoin and altcoins began. The judgment of a peak around February to April is basically maintained; if it goes slow, this peak will likely be hard to sustain until December, at most until mid to late October; if it goes fast, the peak might be around early September.
3: Even if the top collapses and the bull market ends, it should be very difficult for BTC to fall 50% in 3 months or 80% in a year like before; BTC will belong to Wall Street major funds and institutional ETFs, used for market making and as financial reserves for listed companies as well as foreign exchange reserves for small and medium-sized countries; rich people and enterprises will also treat it as an asset for allocation ( to preserve value and increase by 2-5 times every 4 years, how appealing ). BTC has already drifted far away from new small investors.
4: However, the collapse rhythm of altcoins will be the same as before, or even more intense and deeper; once a downtrend is established, the whales and institutions of each coin will definitely go crazy selling off altcoins. ( Almost all altcoins are worthless ), and a considerable portion of this will be converted into BTC for storage because large funds also need to guard against the potential risk of USDT crashing (, although it is very small ). Institutions and old players in a bear market will definitely hold both BTC and USDT at the same time (. Those with firm beliefs may hold only BTC throughout the bull-bear cycle; in short, they will not only hold USDT ). Missing out on the long-term explosive growth of BTC also poses a risk (. As long as you sell, there is a risk of missing out due to not buying back in time ). If you truly realize it is a bear market and your selling speed is slow, you can try to exchange all X altcoins that have BTC/X trading pairs for BTC to reduce risk (. BTC will eventually rise again; if you just hold onto altcoins, you will truly despair ).
5: There are still 2-4 months until the top. Engaging in wave trading, selling at high points after buying low, and waiting for BTC's explosive growth after clearing positions is equally risky. Ordinary people should focus on buying at the bottom and selling at the top. ( can be done in batches for both buying and selling, capturing about 70-80% of the long-term cycle's major trend gains is sufficient. Thinking about capturing the entire cycle or even aiming for excessive returns after wave corrections often leads to the opposite outcome.
6: In the future cycles, new small investors should play the potential value altcoins in the top 100 in the same way they played BTC before. It was previously mentioned that ETFs would have an impact on the subsequent market ), aiming for 3-10 times returns in each cycle. From this perspective, the crypto world is still the same crypto world, and it can be played for many more years, much better than certain stock markets or real estate markets in India or Vietnam. To prevent the risk of going to zero, try not to touch coins after the top 100; also, avoid leveraged contracts in the market as much as possible. As for capable young people who believe they can act faster than others, they should explore new coins in trending sectors.