2024 US Presidential Election Prediction: Trump's Approval Rating Surpasses Harris

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the latest data from market prediction platforms shows that Trump's approval rating has reached 53%, surpassing Harris's 46%. This change has drawn widespread attention, particularly in financial markets and the cryptocurrency sector. Trump's rising approval rating reflects his advantages in economic policy and reveals the challenges faced by Harris.

This article will analyze the key factors behind the rise in Trump's election rate from multiple perspectives, including controversies over economic policies, attitudes of moderate voters, political influences in key states, and support from the cryptocurrency industry, to help readers gain a comprehensive understanding of the current electoral dynamics.

1. Controversy over Harris's Economic Policy

The economic policies proposed by Harris are at the core of her campaign, but they have sparked widespread controversy across various sectors of society.

1. Price control policies are highly questioned.

Harris proposed to limit the pricing power of companies through legislation to control inflation and protect consumers. However, many economists believe this could lead to market distortions and shortages of goods. Some commentators have pointed out that price controls could disrupt the balance of supply and demand and even trigger a black market. Although this policy attracts some voters, it may increase economic instability in the long run, affecting the support of centrist voters.

2. Housing policy faces challenges

Harris has pledged to undertake large-scale construction of affordable housing for the middle class to address the housing shortage. However, the implementation of this policy comes with high costs, raising questions about its economic viability. The sources of funding and details remain unclear, potentially relying on massive deficits or tax increases, which has drawn further criticism. This uncertainty has left moderate voters feeling uneasy, impacting Harris's policy credibility.

3. The effects of middle-class policies are limited.

Harris emphasized improving the quality of life for the middle class by increasing tax credits and controlling medical costs. However, the long-term sustainability of these policies and their funding sources remain in question. Additionally, the approach of linking economic policies with social justice issues has raised concerns among conservatives and some moderates, while winning support from progressives.

4. Overall Impact on the Election Situation

Overall, Harris's economic policies reflect concern for the middle and low-income groups, but due to the radical nature of the policies and the lack of execution details, they have failed to effectively increase support among moderates. On the contrary, this has provided Trump with a point of attack, allowing him to emphasize his own experience in economic management and attract more voters who are focused on economic stability and growth.

2. Moderate Voter Attitudes Are Wavering

Centrist voters play a key role in American elections. As the controversy over Harris's economic policies intensifies, support for her among centrists is declining. In contrast, Trump's positions on tax cuts and economic stimulus align more closely with centrists' expectations for economic development. Trump's support for free markets, along with the tax cuts and deregulation measures he implemented during his term, has also garnered some approval from centrists.

3. The Impact of Key State Political Figures' Absence

Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro's absence from the Democratic meeting has a negative impact on Harris's election prospects. As a key swing state, the attitudes of Pennsylvania voters are crucial. Shapiro's absence may be interpreted as dissatisfaction with Harris's policies or strategies, weakening her support in the state. This not only affects the election prospects in Pennsylvania but also indirectly impacts the performance in other swing states, increasing the challenges Harris faces in party unity and support in key states.

4. Trump Gains Support from the Cryptocurrency Industry

Trump's supportive attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry is another important factor in his rising approval ratings. He became one of the first major candidates to publicly accept cryptocurrency donations, demonstrating an open attitude towards the industry. This move not only expanded his voter base but also attracted young voters and tech enthusiasts who are skeptical of traditional finance.

Trump also made a series of policy commitments, further consolidating his position in the crypto community. He stated that if re-elected, he would promote the inclusion of Bitcoin in the U.S. strategic reserves and consider using Bitcoin to address part of the national debt issue. These proposals received a warm response in the crypto community and are seen as enhancing the legitimacy and global status of cryptocurrencies.

Compared to Harris, Trump has a clearer and more proactive stance in the cryptocurrency field, gaining substantial support from the industry. Practitioners and investors in the crypto industry are sensitive to market prospects and are more inclined to support candidates who have an open attitude towards the industry.

5. The Impact of Cryptocurrency Company Election Spending

In the 2024 election cycle, nearly half of corporate political donations come from cryptocurrency companies. These companies influence election outcomes by supporting candidates that align with their interests. The cryptocurrency industry's support for Trump is not only reflected in rhetoric but also significantly impacts the election through financial assistance.

This enterprise-level support further solidifies Trump's position in the crypto community and related industries. As more funds are directed towards supporting Trump's political action committee, his financial and promotional advantages in the election are strengthened, directly driving an increase in the predicted market betting rates.

Conclusion

Trump's rising poll numbers are the result of multiple factors working together. Controversies surrounding Harris's economic policies, the absence of key political figures in swing states, and Trump's support from the crypto industry have all played significant roles. In the coming months, both candidates will face enormous challenges and will need to continuously adjust their strategies to garner more voter support.

Regardless of the final outcome, this election will have a profound impact on the global cryptocurrency market. Investors and market participants need to closely monitor the policy directions of the two candidates to formulate future investment strategies.