The Stablecoin Market Reaches a Turning Point: Circle's Listing Marks the Beginning of a New Era

The stablecoin officially enters the main stage of the global capital market. From being regarded as a "casino chip" stablecoin to today’s other stablecoin representing "compliant digital dollars" landing on the US stock market, this is not only a turning point for business but also a preliminary battle for the reconstruction of financial order. Compliant stablecoins are no longer just on-chain circulation tools, but strategic agents for the global expansion of the dollar.

In 2025, the regulation of stablecoins in multiple countries will gradually take effect, and the "grey market dollar" and "whitelist dollar" represented by different stablecoins will officially diverge. The listing of a certain company is not only a capitalization event in the cryptocurrency industry but also a structural upgrade of the globalization of the dollar, marking the starting point for compliant dollars to complete the on-chain output of financial sovereignty.

Market Size: Stablecoins Become a New Anchor Point for Global Liquidity

According to institutional forecasts, the total market value of global stablecoins will be between $1.6 trillion and $3.7 trillion by 2030, with the increase mainly concentrated in three areas: cross-border payments, on-chain finance, and tokenization of physical assets.

• Cross-border payments will become a core driving scenario. The settlement costs of stablecoins are significantly reduced, making them particularly attractive for specific regions.
• The tokenization of physical assets connects on-chain with real assets. Stablecoins act as the funding side, creating a growth flywheel with the asset side.
• Native scenarios of virtual assets continuously provide basic liquidity. On-chain lending, derivatives, etc., continue to absorb stablecoin as collateral.

Stablecoins will gradually become the "dollar liquidity core" in the native operating system of Web3.

Competitive Landscape: Advantages and Challenges in a Dual Race

A certain company is facing a dual competition: competing for liquidity coverage with on-chain native players and competing for institutional output rights with traditional financial giants.

Core Competitive Advantage:

• Compliance and legitimacy first
• Open Infrastructure and Ecological Network
• Institutional trust and mainstream capital access

With the implementation of regulatory policies, the operational costs of non-compliant issuers have risen, and compliance is gradually transforming into a competitive advantage. Although it is difficult to defeat a large competitor in the gray market, an irreplaceable position is being built from an institutional perspective.

However, clear market access rules will also attract more traditional financial institutions to enter the field, challenging their leading advantage. The key lies in who can build "compliant + composable + accessible" on-chain payment infrastructure faster and gain the trust of institutions.

Business Model: Interest Rate Sensitive, Channel Dependent, Urgent Need for Diversified Growth

The current profit structure is singular, with high sensitivity to interest rates. In 2024, 99% of the income will come from reserve interest. There is a high degree of reliance on channels, with a certain large exchange monopolizing the monetization efficiency.

Core transformation direction: expand non-interest income and build the combinable monetization capability of stablecoin infrastructure. Cross-chain transfer protocols, on-chain payment APIs, and other modules will be key. The collaboration with asset management companies on-chain clearing and settlement linked to the tokenization of physical assets is the core scenario for long-term valuation reconstruction.

Finance and Valuation: The Compliance Path is Harder than Profit Margin

The IPO valuation is approximately $8.1 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 50 times and a price-to-sales ratio of about 5 times, achieving a relatively optimistic pricing. The asset management scale has risen to $60 billion, exceeding pre-crisis levels. Current interest rates support profitability, but operating expenses are relatively high.

Compared to non-compliant competitors, profitability is suppressed by compliance costs. However, compliance is necessary to attract mainstream, institutional funds and to create capital market value and premiums.

Investment Strategy: Short-term sentiment-driven, long-term systematic restructuring

• During the IPO phase, market sentiment is high, and there may be trading opportunities in the short term.
• Need to pay attention to the risk of valuation regression, mainly due to the decline in interest rates and channel dependence.
• The key in the medium to long term lies in the expansion of new business and the integration capability of the global payment network.
• Investors are currently betting on regulatory licenses and the pricing power of future on-chain payment networks.

Conclusion: The Era of Compliance Begins, IPO is Just the Prologue

The stablecoin market is on the brink of an explosion. A certain company is at the intersection of trends, possessing institutional advantages, technical architecture, and institutional trust. However, it still faces challenges such as income structure and channel dependence, and whether it can build a second growth curve will determine its valuation reconstruction path.

This IPO marks the starting point for global stablecoins to officially enter the institutionalized track. What the capital market is truly betting on is whether it can become the key protocol layer of the global on-chain dollar consensus system. When its product becomes the universal underlying layer of "on-chain dollars," the real story is just beginning.