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AI Weekly Hotspot Report (07.11 - 07.18)
Table of Contents:
1. Market Trend
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total market value of cryptocurrencies reached $1.2 trillion, an increase of 3.2% compared to the previous period. Exchange trading volume grew by 1.8%, reaching $120 billion. Bitcoin's price fluctuated around $30,000, with a slight increase in trading volume. The overall market shows a sideways consolidation pattern, and market sentiment is cautiously optimistic. Investors are waiting for new positive news to drive the next wave of market trends.
According to the Gate Fear and Greed Index, today's market sentiment is "Greed," with a fear and greed index of 73. Compared to yesterday, the overall market sentiment remains greedy, but the index has slightly decreased. This indicates that investor sentiment is still optimistic, but enthusiasm has slightly cooled.
1.2. Macroeconomic Impact
Recent data shows that the global economic recovery is slowing down. In June, the US CPI rose by 3.0% year-on-year, in line with expectations, but down from 4.0% in May. The Eurozone's CPI annual rate for June was 2.6%, below the expected 2.8%. The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes suggest a high likelihood of interest rate cuts in September, with institutions estimating a 95.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September.
The Producer Price Index is a leading indicator of inflationary pressures. The US PPI in June rose by 0.1% year-on-year, lower than the expected 0.2%. The Eurozone's PPI annual rate for June was -3.5%, indicating that inflationary pressures are easing. The Purchasing Managers' Index reflects the state of economic activity. The preliminary manufacturing PMI for the US in July was 52.3, and the preliminary services PMI was 52.4, both slightly lower than the previous values. The preliminary composite PMI for the Eurozone in July was 49.4, below the expansion range.
Overall, inflationary pressures have eased somewhat but remain high. Economic activity is slowing down, with insufficient growth momentum in the manufacturing and service sectors. The Federal Reserve is expected to moderately cut interest rates in September to balance inflation and economic growth. The cryptocurrency market may be somewhat affected, and investor sentiment may warm up.
1.3 Financial Calendar
Macroeconomic data is an important basis for assessing the economic operation of a country or region. This week, several highly important economic data will be released, including the Eurozone interest rate decision, US employment, and real estate data, which will have a significant impact on the global financial markets. Investors need to closely monitor changes in this data and adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner based on the published results.
2. Funding and Price Fluctuation Analysis
2.1. Price Fluctuation Analysis
BTC Volatility Based on the daily closing prices of BTC over the past week, the volatility of BTC this week is 0.92%.
Price Fluctuation Analysis This week, the price of BTC has fluctuated in the range of $117,000 to $123,000. The price increase is mainly driven by continuous buying from institutional investors and inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. Conversely, the price drop may be attributed to profit-taking actions by investors.
Trading Volume Impact The changes in trading volume often reflect market activity and sentiment. This week, the average daily trading volume of BTC is about 10 million coins, a decrease compared to last week. The reduction in trading volume may suggest an increase in market wait-and-see sentiment, and prices may oscillate within a range in the short term.
Market Activity and Price Direction The price of BTC is currently in a consolidation phase, but the continuous inflow of funds may lay the foundation for subsequent increases. However, if trading volume and market activity decline further, it may trigger a certain degree of correction. Therefore, closely monitoring trading volume and capital flow is crucial for assessing future market trends.
2.2. Capital flow analysis
According to the latest capital flow data, we can see the inflow and outflow of funds for some major cryptocurrencies. Taking the algorithm coin ALGO as an example, the net inflow of funds reached 138 million USD in the past week, indicating a relatively active capital situation.
FET coin also shows a similar active state, with a net inflow of funds reaching as high as 96.6 million USD in the past week. This may indicate an increase in investor demand for FET coin, and prices may rise in the future.
Virtual Currency VIRTUAL showed a slightly weak performance last week, with a net outflow of funds amounting to 44.8 million USD. This may indicate that investors are withdrawing their positions and lack confidence in the coin's prospects.
Overall, the capital flow situation of different cryptocurrencies indicates that investors have varying degrees of optimism towards different coins. Investors need to closely monitor changes in the capital landscape to grasp the pulse of the market.
2.3. Smart Money Analysis
The flow of smart money often predicts market trends. According to the latest data, the large order trading volumes of BTC and ETH show different trends.
Large BTC Outflow The recent large outflows of BTC have significantly increased, indicating that institutional investors are gradually reducing their positions. This may suggest that the upward momentum of BTC is weakening, and it could face some selling pressure in the future.
ETH large order inflow At the same time, the inflow of large orders for ETH continues to increase, indicating that institutional funds are increasing their positions in ETH. This could bring more upward momentum to ETH, and the upward trend may continue in the future.
Predicting Trends Overall, smart money is flowing from BTC to ETH, which may indicate that the upward momentum of BTC will slow down, while the upward trend of ETH may continue. However, the market is volatile, and investors should remain cautious.
3. Hot Topics
Dogecoin becomes the new darling of institutional investors, Origin's $500 million fund ignites the crypto world.
BitOrigin Company launches a $500 million Dogecoin fund, causing market upheaval.
Bit Origin Ltd ( NASDAQ: BTOG ) announced an ambitious plan on July 17 to launch a $500 million Dogecoin ( DOGE ) fund. The company has secured up to $500 million in funding for long-term holding of DOGE to enhance asset value by increasing the amount of currency held per share. The first $15 million has been raised through convertible bond financing for initial DOGE purchases.
The consequences of this strategy may include a significant change in the perception of DOGE within institutional portfolios. This move marks the first company listed on Nasdaq to participate in DOGE as a fund asset, potentially signaling a diversification of strategies beyond traditional assets.
"Bit Origin Limited has secured up to $500 million in funding to launch the Dogecoin Reserve Fund." - Mr. Jiang Jinghai, Chairman of the Board, CEO, and General Manager of Bit Origin Limited
Market participants have expressed concern over the announcement from Origin, suggesting that DOGE may be adopted by institutions, creating a wave of dissemination throughout the cryptocurrency space.
Dogecoin's market performance is impressive, with a surge in trading volume.
As of July 17, 2025, the market capitalization of Dogecoin is $32.11 billion, with a trading price of approximately $0.21. Recent significant price changes include a 6.35% increase in the past 24 hours and a 37.07% increase over the last 90 days. Trading volume surged by 96.39%, reaching $3.72 billion, indicating that market interest is on the rise.
"Today's retail data shows strong performance, indicating that the US economy remains resilient, and it's hard to see signs of a slowdown in the short term after the watering down." - Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni), crypto analyst
The research team noted that Origin's scale and presence on Nasdaq may be subject to stricter oversight. However, the shift of funds to DOGE could set a new standard in the company's cryptocurrency strategy.
The integration of ecosystems related to DOGE projects may further influence technological advancements in blockchain applications.
"Bit Origin Limited has secured up to $500 million in funding to launch the Dogecoin Reserve Fund." - Mr. Jiang Jinghai, Chairman of the Board, CEO, and General Manager of Bit Origin Limited.
The $500 million Dogecoin reserve strategy of Origin reflects the company's changing trends in cryptocurrency strategy, which could influence similar initiatives by other companies in the market. The integration of the ecosystem related to DOGE projects may further impact technological advancements in blockchain applications.
4. Major Events
The following are the Top 15 events that have significantly impacted the cryptocurrency market in the last seven days, listed in reverse chronological order:
#1 The U.S. House of Representatives passes three cryptocurrency bills On July 17, 2025, the U.S. House of Representatives passed three important cryptocurrency bills: the GENIUS Act, the CLARITY Act, and the Anti-Central Bank Digital Currency Surveillance Act. This marks a significant advancement in U.S. crypto regulation, providing greater transparency and clarity for the regulation of digital assets. The GENIUS Act establishes strict reserve requirements for stablecoin issuers, while the CLARITY Act clarifies the division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC in regulating digital assets. The Anti-Central Bank Digital Currency Act aims to prevent the launch of a central bank digital currency in the U.S.
#2 Trump administration plans to allow retirement funds to invest in cryptocurrency On July 17, 2025, it was reported that the Trump administration is preparing to sign an executive order allowing 401k retirement plans to invest in alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies, gold, and private equity. This move will drive significant changes in the $9 trillion U.S. retirement market, providing 401k investors with more diverse asset options. This news is seen as an important step towards greater recognition of cryptocurrencies.
#3 BlackRock Applies for Ethereum ETF to Join Staking On July 17, 2025, documents showed that BlackRock had submitted an application to regulators to include a staking feature in its Ethereum ETF. This move aims to allow investors to earn returns from Ethereum staking. If approved, this will become the first Ethereum ETF to include a staking feature, which is expected to further drive institutional adoption of Ethereum.
#4 The U.S. government holds far less Bitcoin than expected 2025-07-16 According to an investigation by independent crypto reporters, as of March 2025, the total amount of Bitcoin actually held by the U.S. government is only 28,988 coins, far below the previously estimated more than 200,000 coins. This finding has sparked speculation throughout the crypto space, with some observers questioning whether the U.S. has been quietly selling its held Bitcoin.
#5 XRP Soars 51,209% Liquidating Short Positions On July 18, 2025, XRP soared by 51,209% in a rare forced liquidation imbalance, almost entirely unfavorable to short sellers. According to real-time data, short positions in XRP lost an astonishing $414,800, while long positions only lost $812.87. This liquidation curve indicates that many traders expected a downturn, but the opposite actually occurred.
#6 Saylor's One-Word Judgment on Bitcoin On July 18, 2025, Strategy's CEO, Michael Saylor, posted a simple message on social media: "Bitcoin is here to stay." As a legendary supporter of the Bitcoin bull market, Saylor's judgment has attracted widespread attention in the market. Strategy currently holds 601,550 Bitcoins, worth approximately $71.3 billion.
#7 Cardano founder issues scam warning On July 18, 2025, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson issued a direct warning after being accused of involvement in a scam, stating that the accusation is unfounded. He emphasized how easily people can fall into get-rich-quick schemes and then blame others when reality hits.
#8 Australia Launches First Bitcoin Mortgage On July 17, 2025, the Australian company Block Earner launched the country's first Bitcoin-backed mortgage, providing cryptocurrency holders with a new way to buy homes without converting digital assets to cash. This product allows borrowers to use Bitcoin as collateral for cash loans.
#9 Seraph announces a buyback of no more than 5 million USDT tokens On July 16, 2025, the Seraph project team announced that it would use project reserve funds to repurchase SERAPH tokens equivalent to no more than 5 million USD from major trading platforms and the Pancake liquidity pool, in response to the recent severe fluctuations caused by a concentrated sell-off of the tokens.
#10 Analysts Favor Bitcoin's Fundamentals On July 16, 2025, 21Shares crypto research strategist Matt Mena stated that Bitcoin is unlikely to enter a downward trend in the near term, as its current movement is supported by solid fundamentals. He pointed out that there is a structural imbalance between surging demand and rapidly decreasing supply, making the likelihood of a long-term pullback increasingly small.
#11 The top five tokens unlocking this week are worth $112 million On July 18, 2025, it was reported that this week there will be token unlocks from five different blockchain projects, including LayerZero, Saros, Arrum, Starknet, and deBridge, with a total value of $112 million. These unlocks aim to test the loyalty of early projects but may also impact token liquidity and price trends.
#12 Introduction to the Top 3 On-chain Analysis Tools On July 18, 2025, Glassnode, Messari, and Santiment continue to lead the field of on-chain analysis tools. Glassnode focuses on long-term on-chain trends, Messari provides real-time market tracking and cross-asset comparisons, while Santiment offers analysis of behavioral and sentiment factors. The combination of these tools enables traders and institutions to make data-driven decisions.
#13 Cryptocurrency market rises with ETH leading the way at nearly 5% On July 16, 2025, according to SoSoValue data, various sectors of the cryptocurrency market have regained upward momentum, with Ethereum leading the way at 4.89%, breaking through 3100 US dollars. However, Bitcoin has still seen a slight decline of 1.30%, adjusting to 117,000 US dollars.
#14 Pi Coin gains momentum, BONK is expected to surge by 34% On July 18, 2025, the price of Pi Coin rose by 9.5%, and its dApp activity rapidly heated up. Analysts expect that the price pattern of BONK shows possible upward breakout signs of 34%. Meanwhile, the mobile mining application X1 Miner users on BlockDAG have surpassed 2 million.
#15 Lavorgna discusses the impact of the stablecoin bill's passage On July 18, 2025, Treasury Secretary advisor Joseph Lavornia shared his views on the House's passing of the stablecoin bill, stating that it is "incredible innovation," but traditional financial institutions do not need to overly worry about competition from cryptocurrencies for the time being.
5. Global Policies
The following is a summary and analysis of the new political dynamics, economic policies, or regulations related to the global cryptocurrency industry based on news from July 11 to 18, 2025, as well as their impact on the industry and the market.
1. The U.S. House of Representatives passes three major cryptocurrency bills
On July 17, 2025, the U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed three key cryptocurrency bills, including the Genius Act, the Clear Act, and the Anti-CBDC Act. These bills will establish a clear regulatory framework for the digital asset industry and are seen as a significant milestone in U.S. cryptocurrency policy.
The passage of these bills will promote the legalization of cryptocurrencies and is expected to stimulate new demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra has predicted that the stablecoin legislation could generate up to $2 trillion in Treasury demand.
2. The Trump administration will allow 401k retirement funds to invest in cryptocurrencies
According to reports, U.S. President Trump is preparing to sign an executive order that will allow 401k retirement plans to invest in alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies, gold, and private equity. This initiative will drive significant changes in the $9 trillion U.S. retirement market, providing 401k investors with more diversified asset options.
The introduction of this policy will further encourage institutional investors to enter the cryptocurrency market, which is expected to bring more capital inflows to the industry.
3. BlackRock applies to add staking feature in Ethereum ETF
Documents show that BlackRock has submitted an application to regulators to add staking features to its Ethereum ETF. If approved, this will be the first Ethereum ETF product to support staking, which is expected to further promote institutional investor participation in the Ethereum ecosystem.
Summary
The introduction of the above policies and regulations marks that the US government is creating a more favorable regulatory environment for the cryptocurrency industry. This not only helps to enhance the legitimacy and acceptance of cryptocurrencies but will also attract more institutional funds into the market, driving industry development. At the same time, the clarification of stablecoin regulation will also help strengthen consumer protection and increase market transparency. Overall, these policies are beneficial for the long-term healthy development of the cryptocurrency market.
6.1. Investment Recommendations
Please note that the above suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and do not constitute financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries a high risk, please invest cautiously.
6.2 Investment Strategy
Technical Analysis of Popular Tokens This Week
Solidus AI Tech (AITECH) price has steadily increased by over 20%, with good trading volume approaching maximum supply, indicating strong sustained momentum. CrappyBird (CRAPPY) price surged nearly 50%, and although its market cap is small, the high trading volume to market cap ratio shows investor enthusiasm for this low market cap token. The performance of these tokens reflects the current market's preference for utility and highly volatile assets. Summary: Momentum and volatility coexist
Quantitative Strategy Robot Performance Analysis
Grid trading strategy captures market fluctuations by setting multiple buy and sell price levels, suitable for moderately volatile markets. The moving average tracking strategy trades based on moving average signals, with lower risk but also relatively moderate returns. The market maker arbitrage strategy profits by capturing the bid-ask spread, carrying higher risk in highly volatile markets but offering considerable returns. The option selling strategy profits by selling call and put options, with lower risk. The volatility trading strategy trades based on market volatility, bearing higher risk in highly volatile markets but also higher returns. Summary: Emphasize multiple strategies, balancing risk and reward
6.3. Financial Management Products
Yubi Treasure
Yubi Bao is a yield earning product launched by Gate, where users can invest idle funds to earn income. The main features include: yield earning, flexible deposits and withdrawals, and interest compounding. After users subscribe, the system will determine whether the loan is successfully issued based on the user's set lending rate and actual borrowing demand at each hour. If the loan is successfully issued, the interest for that hour can be earned. The interest will be automatically reinvested, and upon redemption, both the principal and interest can be redeemed together.
The total amount of USDT in Yubi Bao is 1.111 billion, with an estimated annualized yield of 4.36% + 8.87%.
Wealth Management Treasure
The Wealth Management Treasure is Gate's one-stop comprehensive financial service center, including various investment plans such as demand deposits and fixed deposits. Users can choose different products based on their needs, and the returns will be calculated and distributed based on the specified annual interest rate.
Structured Finance
Structured finance is a new type of financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as options. The returns are linked to the price performance of the underlying assets during the investment period and can be categorized into capital-protected and aggressive types. Users can choose to purchase products with specified terms based on yield, base currency, and more, with principal and interest settled upon maturity.
4. Market Interest Rate
Note:
Disclaimer: The above data is provided by a third party and may be subject to delays, deviations, or errors. The content of this report is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
6.4. Technical Analysis
ETH Bollinger Bands Trading Strategy
Bollinger Bands are a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential overbought or oversold conditions through the standard deviation of prices.
Trading Strategy:
Backtest Results:
Backtest the historical data of ETH according to the above trading strategy, with the backtest period from January 1, 2023, to June 30, 2025.
Data analysis shows that this strategy achieved positive returns during the backtesting period, but it also came with high volatility and drawdown risk. Specifically:
Advantages:
Simple and easy to understand, convenient to operate
Disadvantages:
Overall, the Bollinger Bands trading strategy is suitable for investors with a moderate risk appetite, allowing them to achieve certain returns while also bearing an acceptable level of risk. Investors need to weigh the pros and cons based on their own circumstances or combine it with other analytical methods for comprehensive application.