#山寨季何时到来？# The arrival time of the alt season is difficult to predict accurately, but based on some analyses and historical experiences, there are the following viewpoints and judgments:

From a historical cycle perspective
1 Alt season 2017: Lasting from July to the following January.
2 2021 alt season: Lasting from January to May.
3 2025 Prediction: Based on historical patterns, there are opinions that the potential window for the alt season in 2025 may last from the end of June to December.
From the perspective of current market signals
1. Bitcoin's Dominance Declines: When Bitcoin's dominance declines, it indicates that funds may start flowing into altcoins. Currently, Bitcoin's dominance is around 64%, and if it continues to fall, altcoins may experience a rebound.
2 Altcoin season index rises: The altcoin season index measures the performance of the top 50 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over a 90-day period. Currently, the index has risen from 26 points to 32 points. Although it is still away from the breakout threshold of 75 points, early signs of capital rotation are already evident.
3 Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin: As the leader of altcoins, Ethereum's performance has an important impact on the arrival of alt season. When the ratio of Ethereum to Bitcoin rises and the altcoin breaks through historical highs, it may welcome an altcoin rally. Currently, Ethereum is still continuing to strive for new highs, and funds are beginning to favor the latecomer altcoin.
From a technical and application perspective
1. Technological Innovation: If blockchain technology makes significant progress in areas such as scalability, privacy, and cross-chain interoperability by 2025, a new alt season may follow. For example, if layer 2 solutions can truly achieve seamless integration with the main chain, or if cross-chain protocols like Polkadot make breakthroughs, it will drive up the value of related altcoins.
2 Rise of Emerging Applications: With the rise of new applications such as web3, decentralized identity authentication, and decentralized social networking, related altcoin projects are expected to enter a period of explosive growth. For example, the development in areas such as decentralized storage, privacy protection technology, and NFTs may become the driving force of a new alt season.