0705 Bitcoin market report 📢📢📣📣 #非农就业数据来袭#

The price of Bitcoin is showing a volatile pattern with intensified long and short battles, with technical and macro variables intertwining to affect short-term trends. The current price of Bitcoin is fluctuating within a narrow range of $107,000 to $108,500, which is the core area of long and short contention over the past two weeks. The lower support level of $107,000 has been tested multiple times since late June; if it breaks, it may dip to the 20-day moving average support at $105,800. The upper resistance at $108,500 is the high point of the current short-term rebound; if it breaks through and stabilizes, it is expected to challenge the key psychological level of $110,600. The daily chart shows that Bitcoin is still in an upward channel after the halving in April 2024, with the medium to long-term dynamic support line located near $101,500 to $102,000. Therefore, if the price continues to stabilize above $108,500, the mid-term target could be looking towards the historical high of $112,000.

🔊🔊Technical Indicators: A-TR: The 4-hour chart shows that Bitcoin is operating in a symmetrical triangle convergence pattern, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing to recent lows, indicating that the price may face a directional breakthrough, and A-TR has compressed to a critical point. RSI: The 4-hour RSI is at 48.2, close to the neutral zone, showing that short-term momentum is weakening and buying pressure is slowing down. MA-CD: The 30-minute MA-CD has formed a bearish crossover, with histogram momentum weakening, while the daily MA-CD still maintains positive values, indicating that the medium to long-term trend has not changed, but short-term pullback pressure is increasing. Trading Volume: Recent trading volume has significantly decreased, down about 28% compared to May, leading to lower market activity, so a genuine and effective breakout requires volume support, rejecting fluctuations.

🔊🔊 Market sentiment: The inflow of funds into spot ET-F slowed in July, but the cumulative inflow in June exceeded 2 billion USD, indicating a relatively stable long-term allocation demand; the market is closely watching the tariff policy developments on July 9 and the progress of the cryptocurrency executive order on July 22, as these events may become key catalysts to break the current oscillation pattern. Interested parties can follow the latest updates from various trading partners.

📕📕Summary: Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture of technical convergence and market sentiment battle. Short-term volatility may intensify, and the breakout direction will depend on the coordination of trading volume and the catalytic factors of policy expectations. Before the market direction is clear, it is recommended to control positions and prioritize monitoring the breakout signals in the range of 107,000-108,500 dollars.

🔑🔑Multiple scenario presets and operational suggestions: 1. Breakout scenario: 1. If the Bitcoin closing price stabilizes above $108,500 and the trading volume increases to over $50 billion, short-term traders can try going long with a small position, targeting $112,000 (approximately 3%). 2. If it falls below the support level of $107,000, it is necessary to observe whether it will fill the lower shadow to avoid a liquidity crisis triggered by selling, exacerbating the drop towards around $102,000.

2. Volatility Scenario: If the price maintains in the range of $107,000 - $108,500 over the weekend, a high sell low buy strategy can be adopted: 1. Consider gradually building long positions in the range of $107,000 - $107,500, with a target of $108,500 and a stop loss near $106,500. 2. Consider attempting short positions with light volume in the range of $108,000 - $108,500, with a target of $107,000 and a stop loss near $109,000.

Special Reminder: This article is for readers' reference only and should not be used as an investment basis!!!