Analysis of Staking Conditions After Ethereum Shanghai Upgrade

Ethereum successfully completed the Shanghai upgrade on April 12, over half a month has passed since the opening of stake withdrawals. The market's initial concerns about large-scale selling pressure did not materialize; on the contrary, the price of Ether has shown an upward trend, breaking through the $2100 mark for several days, reaching a nearly 10-month high. At the same time, the total locked value in the DeFi ecosystem of Ethereum remains stable, and the liquid staking derivative (LSD) and related DeFi protocols continue to be active.

However, this situation has also raised new concerns, with some opinions suggesting that the high staking yield of Ethereum may crowd out other on-chain activities, which is not conducive to long-term development. To gain a deeper understanding of the impact of Ethereum's staking yield, we analyzed the staking and withdrawal situation of Ethereum as of April 26, while also examining the staking yields offered by various staking institutions and protocols, as well as the main application markets for staking certificates.

Stake Withdrawal Status

1. After the upgrade, the total amount of Ethereum stake withdrawals is approximately 1.7242 million ETH. Among them, full withdrawals account for 44.23%, while partial withdrawals account for 55.77%. The current total amount available for withdrawal is approximately 635.8 thousand ETH.

2. Full withdrawals occur approximately once every 5 days with a larger scale of withdrawals. Some withdrawals were large in the first 5 days after the upgrade (from the 12th to the 16th), and then significantly decreased.

3. The withdrawal structure reflects staking activities and market trends. Some withdrawals can be seen as passive withdrawals (automatically occurring on a cycle), while full withdrawals are considered active withdrawals (actively exiting the node pool). The current withdrawal structure indicates that most institutions/protocols primarily engage in passive withdrawals, with staking expectations relatively stable, and passive withdrawals are also more likely to flow back, which could be a reason for the stable increase in staking amounts and coin prices.

4. After the upgrade, the total accumulated stake increased by 387,200 ETH, with a growth rate of about 2.13% and an average daily increase of about 0.15%, slightly higher than the 0.13% in the year prior to the upgrade, indicating that staking activities are overall more active.

Stake Yield Analysis

5. The average expected annual staking yield of 18 major staking institutions/protocols is approximately 5.45%, higher than the "benchmark rate" of 4.27%. By category, the average expected annual staking yield of LSD protocols is the highest, at about 6.17%.

6. The development of LSDFi may have a profound impact on the Ethereum staking mechanism. When circular staking becomes a higher-yield option, the growth in the amount staked may no longer lead to a decrease in staking rewards, which could reshape the economic logic of Ethereum.

Stake Institutions and Protocol Performance

The performance of various staking institutions and protocols varies. Some trading platforms have withdrawn large amounts of ETH due to regulatory requirements, while others primarily focus on partial withdrawals. Some LSD protocols and staking pools have attracted a large number of new stakes.

From the perspective of net flow, some institutions have experienced significant net outflows, while others have achieved notable net inflows. This difference reflects changes in user preferences for different stake services.

Future Outlook

The Ethereum staking ecosystem is entering a new phase. Staking yield will become an important factor in regulating on-chain activities. At the same time, the development of LSD and LSDFi provides users with more earning opportunities, but may also bring new risks and challenges.

As time goes by, staking yields may continue to decline. However, innovative staking derivatives and DeFi applications may provide users with more sources of income. Market participants need to closely monitor these developments to adapt to the ever-evolving Ethereum staking ecosystem.