The US stock market is about to迎来6.5 trillion "Triple Witching Day", Bitcoin's momentum is insufficient and may continue to consolidate.

1. Market Observation

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates this week, but the overall stance is hawkish. Officials have differing views on future policy, with 10 expecting at least two rate cuts this year, while 7 believe rates will remain unchanged. Current inflation is close to the 2% target but has not been fully achieved, and economists warn that premature rate cuts could lead to a rebound in inflation.

This Friday, about $6.5 trillion worth of U.S. stock options and derivative contracts will be set to expire, and this "Triple Witching" event may lay the groundwork for volatility in the market next week. The founder of research firm Asym 500 LLC pointed out that since May, the daily volatility of U.S. stocks has been relatively mild, thanks to the "pinning effect" created by a large number of put option trades earlier this year. Analysts believe that this expiration date could become one of the largest expiration events in history, and investors should be wary of potential market volatility risks.

At an industry salon, a senior executive from a certain group stated that the virtual asset industry has entered the second growth curve phase, and the industry focus is shifting from "digital native" represented by Bitcoin to "digital twin" represented by stablecoins and asset tokenization. He pointed out that digital twin is the biggest innovation of distributed ledger technology, among which stablecoins and asset tokenization are the most representative forms. Stablecoins are considered the optimal form of currency at present and will occupy an important position in the future global financial system.

Due to the U.S. holiday, the stock market was closed on June 19, and the cryptocurrency market showed very little movement. The price of Bitcoin has basically remained unchanged over the past three days, with less than $100 million in liquidations in the last 24 hours. Analysis indicates that the escalation of geopolitical tensions has heightened investors' risk aversion, increasing the demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries, while the demand for risk assets like Bitcoin has decreased. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged has strengthened the dollar's performance, putting pressure on Bitcoin.

On the technical side, Bitcoin's price is constrained by multiple moving average resistances around $106,000, with the market trading volume being sluggish and the Relative Strength Index approaching the midpoint, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. If it breaks through the moving average resistance in the short term, Bitcoin may have a chance to challenge the $112,000 high, but the current momentum is insufficient, and it may continue to consolidate.

According to data analysis platforms, Bitcoin has faced continuous selling pressure in the market since June. Although the price has recently rebounded, trading volume remains low, indicating insufficient upward momentum. If demand continues to weaken, Bitcoin may short-term dip to the support range of $94,000 to $97,000, and the market needs more buying demand to achieve a breakthrough. Several analysis institutions have pointed out that the market exhibits characteristics of low volatility, a narrowing price range, and weakened on-chain activity, with retail participation declining and institutional investors becoming the dominant force.

Solana is currently oscillating within the key support range of $140-145, which is seen as a potential trend reversal point. Analysts point out that the current price of SOL is $145.94, testing the golden Fibonacci retracement range of 0.618 to 0.786, which has historically been regarded as a strong trend reversal support area. Investors are advised to position long orders within the range of $128-140, with target prices of $204.31, $229.01, and $258.45 respectively. Another analyst stated that if the SOL price falls below the $140 support, it may trigger an accelerated decline, targeting the $102-103 area, with a drop of about 30%. Conversely, if it can break through $160-170 with increased trading volume, it may reverse the current bearish pattern, with upward targets possibly pointing to the $180-$220 range.

In addition, a company's Solana ETF was registered with the DTCC on June 18, viewed as preliminary preparation for ETF approval. Although the SEC recently postponed its decision on another company's Spot Solana ETF, analysts believe the approval probability still stands at 90%, which could inject confidence into the market. Solana's short-term performance will depend on the performance of the $140-145 support range and the market's expectations for ETF approval.

In the altcoin market, the MEME coin LABUBU has dropped 23% in the past 24 hours, marking three consecutive days of decline, with its market cap falling from a recent high of $60 million to $27 million. This drop may be related to the short-term collapse of Labubu's collectible toy prices. Within the Solana ecosystem, a developer has proposed forking Solana and launched an experimental chain, whose token once reached a market cap of $40 million but is currently reported at $33.35 million. Additionally, some newly launched tokens have briefly reached higher market caps. In contrast, the popularity of Meme coins on Avalanche has cooled down. On the other hand, a certain fund continues to buy altcoins as planned, with this purchase amounting to $200,000.

2. Key Data (as of June 20, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $104,658 (Year-to-date +11.46%), Daily spot trading volume $17.204 billion
• Ethereum: $2,520.03 (Year-to-date -24.9%), daily spot trading volume is $9.922 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.58 sat/vB ETH: 0.33 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 64.1%, ETH 9.4%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.10206
• Sector Performance: AI Meme down 5.8%; DePIN sector down 2.72%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 55924 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of 89.34 million USD, including 10.69 million USD in BTC liquidations, 18.12 million USD in ETH liquidations, and 5.38 million USD in SOL liquidations.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (106791.78 USD), lower channel line (104677.09 USD)
• ETH Medium to Long Term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line (2581.84 USD), Lower Channel Line (2530.72 USD)

3. ETF Inflows (as of June 19)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$390 million (net inflow for 8 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: +$19.0998 million (net inflow for 3 days)

4. Today's Outlook

• A certain exchange will delist the CATI/FDUSD and two other spot trading pairs on June 20.
• Another exchange will delist 8 spot trading pairs including ALCX, NULS, MDT, BORA on June 20.
• The Lista DAO (LISTA) will unlock approximately 33.44 million tokens on June 20 at 5 PM, which is 19.36% of the current circulating supply, worth about 7 million dollars.
• SPACE ID (ID) will unlock approximately 72.65 million tokens on June 22 at 8 AM, which is 16.88% of the current circulating supply, valued at around 12 million dollars.

Top 500 market cap biggest gain today: Threshold (T) up 23.55%, Joe coin (JOE) up 15.66%, StormX (STMX) up 14.77%, Sei (SEI) up 11.52%, Mythos (MYTH) up 9.51%.

5. Hot News

• Bitcoin on-chain transaction volume hits an 18-month low, as the hype around Runes and Ordinals fades.
• Semler Scientific appoints Bitcoin Strategic Director, plans to hold 105,000 Bitcoins by the end of 2027.
• 49% of surveyed institutions worldwide have used stablecoins for payments.
• The Bitcoin treasury reserves of listed companies have exceeded 768,500 coins, valued at over 8.2 billion dollars.
• Fidelity: The growth rate of the "ancient supply" of Bitcoin that has not moved for over ten years has exceeded the daily new issuance.
• SOL Strategies submitted Form 40-F registration statement to the SEC in the United States, planning to list on NASDAQ under the code "STKE".
• LGHL secured $600 million in funding from ATW Partners to launch the HYPE treasury.
• Fetch.ai will launch a $50 million FET token buyback plan.
• The Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates unchanged, still expecting to cut rates twice this year.