Bitcoin recorded the second largest weekly fall in this cycle, with the market trading on expectations of a U.S. economic recession.

This week, Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback, opening at $94265.47 and closing at $80699.17, with a weekly decline of 14.39% and a volatility of 15.29%. Although trading volume has decreased compared to last week, it remains at a high level. The price of Bitcoin has fallen below the previously established support range of $89000 to $110000, significantly retracing earlier gains.

In the past two weeks, the Bitcoin market has shown a complex situation. On one hand, the US stock market has begun to trade on "recession" expectations, retracting most of its earlier gains, which has also led to the largest outflow of funds since the establishment of Bitcoin spot ETFs. On the other hand, the US policy environment's attitude towards crypto assets is gradually improving, including the passage of some state-level bills, creating more favorable conditions for the development of Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

However, in the short term, investor sentiment dominated the price movement. Accompanied by a correction in the U.S. stock market, Bitcoin fell 14.39% this week, marking the second largest weekly decline in this cycle. Although it did not break below the lowest point on February 28, it has breached an important support level. The Fear and Greed Index has fallen back to a level of "Extreme Fear" at 20 points.

With the release of the US non-farm payroll data and the speech by the Federal Reserve Chairman on Friday, US stock indices rebounded and temporarily stabilized. However, the short- to medium-term market trend remains unclear, largely depending on the trajectory of US economic data. The movement of Bitcoin will still be highly correlated with US stocks, making it difficult for it to break away from the overall market to develop an independent trend.

In terms of the macro economy, the U.S. February non-farm payroll data shows that the job market continues to slow down, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.1%, reaching a new high in recent months. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the current economic situation in the U.S. is generally good, the job market remains balanced, and the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious attitude, not in a hurry to adjust interest rate policies.

Affected by weak economic data and stock market adjustments, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year, by about 75 basis points. The dollar index fell 3.52% for the week, closing at 103.882. Major US stock indices rebounded on Friday, but the overall trend remains unclear.

On the technical front, Bitcoin has shown some resilience compared to US stocks, with the current price still about 15% higher than the level in early November last year. However, from the trend perspective, Bitcoin has fallen out of the previous support range and is operating within a downward channel, facing pressure in the short term. It fell again on Sunday night and broke below the 200-day moving average, indicating that the market remains weak.

From the perspective of capital flow, the selling pressure has eased somewhat this week, but the buying momentum remains insufficient. The overall floating profit rate in the market is 198%, with long-term holders at 347% and short-term holders experiencing a floating loss of 6%. The pressure on short-term holders is often a good opportunity to enter in the mid-term of a bull market.

In terms of stablecoins and Bitcoin spot ETFs, the pressure of capital inflow has eased this week, with a total net inflow of $1.295 billion. Among them, stablecoins saw an inflow of $2.107 billion, while Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced an outflow of $719 million. The capital outflow from ETFs remains one of the main sources of pressure leading to the market's fall.

Overall, the market is currently in a bullish continuation phase, but still faces uncertainties in the short term. The stabilization of Bitcoin prices requires support from factors such as the stabilization of the US stock market and a shift in ETF capital flows from net outflows to net inflows.