Whale fuels the fire – Toncoin (TON) could explode by 20%?

Toncoin (TON) is showing remarkable momentum, as it extends its bounce back with an increase of more than 1% in the midweek session, following a breakout of 5.22% the day before, indicating that the coin is regaining momentum after the short term accumulation phase.

This uptrend is supported by the stable market interest, as evidenced by the continuously increasing open contracts (OI) and the wave of accumulation from "whales" – investors holding large volumes of TON.

At a time of high demand, the breakout price increase along the trend line of Toncoin aims to surpass the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at the level of 3.55 USD, with the potential to target the resistance level of 4.21 USD.

The Increase in Whale Confidence

According to data from Santiment, wallets holding over 100,000 TON have aggressively accumulated an additional 120,000 TON just in July, bringing the total holdings to 5.61 million TON. This accumulation move by "whales" is often seen as a positive signal, indicating long-term confidence in Toncoin and potentially opening up attractive participation opportunities for investors who are on the sidelines of the market.

Distribution of Toncoin supply | Source: Santiment## Optimism spreads in the Toncoin derivatives market

The recovery momentum of Toncoin is further reinforced by strong capital inflows into derivative products. According to data from CoinGlass, the OI of TON has increased by 12.55% in just the past 24 hours, reaching 344.57 million USD, approaching the historical peak of 362.85 million USD set on August 26, 2024. The increase in OI indicates that large capital is flowing into TON futures and options contracts, reflecting the increasingly strong confidence of investors in the price outlook.

Notably, the weighted funding rate based on OI reached 0.006%, a figure that confirms the buyers are in control, as those holding Long positions are willing to pay fees to maintain their trades. This is a sign that bullish expectations continue to dominate the market, despite short term fluctuations.

TON derivatives market | Source: Coinglass## TON aims to surpass the 200-day EMA

The recovery momentum of Toncoin is showing positive strength as the price bounces back from the 100-day EMA, approaching the 200-day EMA at 3.55 USD – an important resistance level that determines the medium-term trend. The RSI is at 63 on the daily frame and continues to trend upward, reflecting increased buying pressure and still has room to grow before reaching overbought territory.

However, the MACD indicator is narrowing the gap between the moving averages, indicating the possibility of short term corrections. This means that investors should be cautious as the price approaches strong resistance areas.

Regarding the strategy, the threshold of 3.51 USD ( the recent peak on 22/7) and the 200-day EMA at 3.55 USD are two important milestones to watch. If a successful breakout occurs, Toncoin may extend its upward momentum to the area of 4.21 USD – the peak on 1/4, corresponding to an increase of about 20% from the current level.

On the contrary, if it fails to break through these resistances, the price may retreat to the 100-day EMA at 3.17 USD to seek new buying power.

TON 1-Day Price Chart | Source: TradingViewEmma