Bitcoin range-bound: Whale bets $200 million, short positions increase to $1 billion - what's the next step?

Gate News bot message, Whales continue to embrace Bitcoin (BTC), the latest Whale is Aguila Trades, a standout among traders. The 365-day profit and loss (P&L) is $77.36 million, with a Return on Investment of 36.45%, and there have been 187 days of profit, making this Whale's performance record self-evident.

But after earlier losses of 12.47 million dollars on BTC long positions, his next move is bolder and carries more risk.

The Whale decided to go long on BTC with 20x leverage, with a position value of 200 million USD (1894 BTC). Considering the current volatility, this is a significant risk.

In the chart, the daily peaks of Return on Investment (ROI) indicate good performance. However, the sharp decline in Return on Investment, especially at the beginning of April, suggests a risk tendency.

(Source: Lookonchain)

The position liquidation in April with a Return on Investment of 100% and more stable trading indicates that the recovery is proceeding cautiously.

With high leverage becoming mainstream again, breaking through resistance levels could lead to substantial returns. However, breaking through resistance levels may also amplify losses.

This series of Bitcoin long trades may help him get back on track, or it may exacerbate recent losses.

The liquidation chart shows a key area between $103,800 and $104,000. There are approximately $700 million in long leverage positioned here.

If BTC returns to this zone, it may trigger a chain of long liquidations, thereby putting Aguila's trading at risk.

On the other hand, short positions worth nearly $1 billion are concentrated between $106,500 and $107,000. If BTC breaks through this area, it could trigger a short squeeze, benefiting highly leveraged longs like Aguila.

(Source: CoinGlass)

However, there are doubts among people about the surge on Sunday, so BTC may potentially stay above $104,000 and continue to rise.

If BTC can stay above $106,000, this momentum could provide a momentum-driven breakthrough for Whales.

If this is not done, it may first lead to an immediate decline, and then there is hope to turn the situation around and set a new historical high.

The MVRV pricing range sets the price of Bitcoin at $105,767, slightly higher than the +0.5 sigma of $102,044.

Unless BTC can maintain this boundary, the price is likely to drop to an average of $82,570.

Nevertheless, if BTC breaks through $102,000 and continues to rise, this strategy may be reasonable, especially if the price re-establishes the +1.0 sigma range at $121,519.

(Source: Glassnode)

MVRV bands usually indicate reversal zones. Now, they highlight a narrow window where BTC's next move could play a decisive role—either validating Aguila's bold entry or setting the stage for another hard reset.

Source: AmbCrypto