Market Brief: Bitcoin is under pressure around $118,000, investors are following tonight's non-farm payroll data.

Market Observation

On Thursday, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing "reciprocal" tariffs on goods from multiple countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%. Countries that have not reached agreements face higher rates, such as 25% for India, 39% for Switzerland, and 30% for South Africa. Tariffs on Canadian goods were raised from 25% to 35%, and a 40% transshipment tax will be levied on transshipped goods. This move aims to protect American manufacturing and address trade imbalances.

Latest data shows that the core PCE price index rose 2.8% year-on-year in June, reaching a five-month high, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures. However, consumer spending growth has slowed, real disposable income has remained flat, and the household savings rate stands at 4.5%. This week, the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, but there was a rare occurrence of two board members supporting a rate cut. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that the labor market is the primary consideration for current monetary policy. The market is closely watching the non-farm payroll data to be released tonight, as it may determine the future direction of policy. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in September is about 50%.

The upcoming implementation of the "Stablecoin Regulation" in Hong Kong has attracted industry attention. Analysts point out that this marks the formal entry of stablecoin technology into the regulatory track, prompting many companies to apply for licenses to issue stablecoins. This indicates that the relevant technology will shift from the conceptual stage to large-scale commercial applications. The industry is actively laying out plans to enhance capabilities in trading, custody, clearing, and risk management, in order to build an efficient cross-border fund flow infrastructure.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $115,000 this morning and has now risen above $115,500. Analysts point out that $114,000 is a key support level. Data shows there is an important liquidation level around $115,883. If the price can form a higher low at $115,700, it might be difficult to touch $113,800 again. After the bulls break through the $118,000 resistance, they may aim for a new historical high. Fundamentally, there has been a significant increase in enterprise-level buyers recently, spot ETFs have resumed net inflows, and favorable policies have also boosted market sentiment.

Ethereum briefly fell to around $3600 this morning. Analysts believe that although ETH faced resistance at $4000, its rebound speed has surpassed Bitcoin, mainly due to retail investors actively buying near $3600. However, there remains a cautious sentiment in the market. Some viewpoints point out that Ethereum has recently failed to break through $4000 multiple times, coupled with a decline in ecosystem TVL and DEX trading volume share compared to competitors, raising concerns among investors. However, if institutions continue to increase their holdings, the ETH price may aim for $5000.

On the regulatory front, the SEC has announced the launch of a "crypto project" at the full committee level, aimed at making the U.S. a global center for crypto assets by revising securities rules. The plan involves various aspects such as token classification, custody rules, trading licenses, and DeFi regulation.

In the traditional financial sector, Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, has officially stepped down from the board, and the Brunei Sovereign Wealth Fund has become the new major shareholder. After the design company Figma went public, its stock price surged, and it is reported that they hold a large amount of Bitcoin and plan to increase their holdings.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $115,619 (Year-to-date +23.51%), Daily trading volume $52.244 billion
• Ethereum: $3,682.83 (year-to-date +11.05%), daily trading volume $34.676 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 65 (Greed)
• Market Share: BTC 61.1%, ETH 11.8%
• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 47.95%/52.05%
• 24-hour liquidation data: 160,329 people were liquidated, with a total amount of 630 million dollars.

ETF Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: -$115 million, first net outflow in 5 days
• Ethereum ETF: +16.9996 million USD, net inflow for 20 consecutive days

Today's Key Focus

• Hong Kong implements the Stablecoin Regulation
• The US unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data for July are released.
• Multiple project token unlocks
• Deadline for the United States to impose tariffs on goods from multiple countries

Market Performance

Today's top 100 market cap biggest declines: Pump.fun down 19.1%, SPX6900 down 15.4%, HEX down 14.5%, Pudgy Penguins down 12%, PulseX down 11.9%.

Hot News

• Strategy Q2 revenue is 14 billion USD, net profit is 10 billion USD
• Mill City Ventures completed a $450 million private placement.
• Coinbase increased its holdings by 2509 Bitcoins, bringing the total to 11776 coins.
• Galaxy Report: Corporate cryptocurrency assets holdings exceed 100 billion USD
• Pudgy Penguins CEO claims to participate in US crypto legislation, PENGU ETF will cover tokens and NFTs.
• The total value of 64 physical ETH treasury reserves has exceeded 10 billion USD.
• Kaia native USDT is available for cash exchange at ATMs in tourist spots in South Korea.
• DoubleZero launches a 3 million SOL staking pool and introduces the staking token dzSOL.