Bitcoin and Ethereum price key levels, market follows Fed's July interest rate decision

Market Observation

Recent market focus has been on the Fed's interest rate policy. Although inflation data shows signs of cooling, Fed officials generally believe that more time is needed to observe and confirm that the price increases will not evolve into persistent inflation. Therefore, the likelihood of a rate cut in July is low. Most opinions lean towards considering a rate cut later this fall or later this year.

The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose on Thursday, led by technology and bank stocks. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite index are close to historic highs. U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, and the dollar index declined for the fourth consecutive day, reaching its lowest level in three years. Market expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year have strengthened.

In terms of regulation, the Hong Kong government has issued a new policy declaration for the development of digital assets, clarifying the implementation of a stablecoin licensing system by 2025, promoting the tokenization of real-world assets, and providing tax incentives for tokenized ETFs and funds. This policy aims to attract international capital and establish Hong Kong as a new hub for the global digital economy.

Bitcoin's price has recently rebounded nearly 10% from $98,188, but the momentum has slowed down. Today marks the largest expiration date for Bitcoin and Ethereum options this year, which may exacerbate short-term volatility. Analysis shows that Bitcoin's price is currently mainly driven by macro news, with strong support in the range of $93,000 to $100,000, but both on-chain transfer volume and spot trading volume are on a downward trend.

Multiple analysts have stated that Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance range of $108,000 to $110,000 and convert it into support to enter a new price discovery phase. The market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) momentum is weakening, but this may signal the late stage of a bull market cycle. If MVRV momentum strengthens, along with the support of ETF capital inflows, Bitcoin's price could break through the current high of $112,000 and even reach above $165,000.

For Ethereum, $2200 is considered a macro bottom, and the price needs to effectively return above $2500 to initiate a stronger rebound. Recently, the Federal Housing Finance Agency in the U.S. directed the acceptance of cryptocurrencies as collateral for mortgage assets, promoting an "home-buying narrative" on-chain.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $107,432 (Year-to-date +14.64%), Daily spot trading volume $20.96 billion
• Ethereum: $2,439.40 (Year-to-date -26.91%), daily spot trading volume is $10.53 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 65 (Greed)
• Market share: BTC 65.1%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 0.9826
• Sector Performance: RWA decreased by 2.45%; NFT sector declined by 1.83%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 89,720 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 2.01 million USD.

ETF Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: +$228 million (net inflow for 13 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: -26.4579 million USD

Hot News

• Grayscale updates Q3 Top 20 asset list: Added AVAX and MORPHO and removed LDO and OP.
• Galaxy and Manifold deposited 30 million USDC into HyperLiquid and started purchasing HYPE.
• Huaxing Capital announces a $100 million entry into the Web3.0 and cryptocurrency sector.
• GameStop raised $450 million again, which may be used to purchase BTC
• The Solana re-staking protocol Fragmetric has launched the FRAG token, with the first airdrop accounting for 10% of the total supply.
• zkLend announces project closure, remaining funds will be used for user compensation.