2025 Crypto Market Outlook: Four Major Scenarios and Eleven Predictions

Since 2024, the crypto market has entered a new bull market cycle. From the approval of the Bitcoin ETF on January 10, to Bitcoin breaking its historical high, and then to the arrival of the altcoin season, the market has experienced significant growth. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is hovering around $90,000.

It is worth noting that altcoin markets often start when Bitcoin reaches a peak. The first wave was Bitcoin attempting to hit $69,000 but failing, and the next wave is targeting $100,000.

The next round of altcoin market is expected to emerge after Bitcoin stabilizes at $100,000, likely occurring in the first quarter of 2025. However, it may also repeat the trends seen in the second and third quarters of 2024 in the coming months. Here are four possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Bitcoin and altcoins surge

The market continues to rise in 2025, entering a new round of altcoin season. Bitcoin continues to rise, driving all tokens to perform well, repeating the trend of the past two months. (30-40% possibility )

Strategy: Choose outstanding altcoins to buy on dips.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises, some altcoins rise

Replaying the trend of 2024, the next few months will experience fluctuations upward, but overall it is more optimistic than 2024. (50-60% probability )

Strategy: Select high-quality altcoins to buy on dips. Avoid popular tracks and look for the next "explosive coin".

Scenario 3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins generally decline

(20-30% possibility)

Strategy: Liquidate altcoins and reduce the proportion of investment in altcoins. Altcoins that have performed poorly in the long term can be considered for complete liquidation.

Scenario 4: Bitcoin falls, altcoins plummet

The market has peaked. (10-20% possibility )

Due to the improving macroeconomic environment, the new round of Bitcoin historical highs may be reached faster than 2024. Last summer, when the ETF was first launched, traditional financial institutions were still struggling to promote Bitcoin to their clients. More importantly, there was widespread skepticism about the significance of Bitcoin.

With the rise of the new regime, the digital asset sector has gained new attention. The next U.S. president frequently talks about Bitcoin, making it easier to persuade others to buy Bitcoin.

This regime change is significant. Therefore, Bitcoin will continue to maintain strong momentum in 2025. The situation with altcoins is similar, but slightly different.

The total market capitalization of all altcoins reached a new high in the first quarter of 2024, the highest since 2021, and then peaked in the fourth quarter of 2024. It roughly follows the same pattern, and the differences between scenario 1 and scenario 2 are not significant.

The key lies in positioning and timing. While 2025 looks promising, it is difficult to predict the specific timing. Although the rise in 2025 may come earlier than in 2024, altcoins could still experience significant declines during periods without catalysts.

As long as the cycle has not ended, whether it's Bitcoin or altcoins, we should remain optimistic. It is unlikely that the situation of summer 2024 will be repeated in 2025; although a similar stable period as the current one may occur, prices will still remain at a good level.

The situation on-chain is different; during periods of market downturn, a 70% drop can easily occur. It is expected that altcoins have not yet peaked at this time, as it is hard to imagine Bitcoin continuing to rise when altcoins "collapse," and there are no signs of Bitcoin peaking here.

Conclusion:

• Bitcoin is expected to continue rising, with an increase likely to surpass that of 2024.
• Altcoins are overall improving, although there will be pullbacks, but the intensity is not as strong as in 2024.

( risk factors

Cycle Top

Currently, there is still a long way to go before the peak of the cycle, but continuous assessment is needed. The peak of the cycle is not necessarily a specific "event", but rather a range that gradually approaches over time.

Bitcoin Reserve Plan Risks

After the new president takes office, all parties will closely monitor his words and actions. Although the outlook for Bitcoin is optimistic, it would be quite a pessimistic signal if the reserve plan is completely ignored. A more likely scenario is that the reserve plan is shelved or delayed.

In the latter case: as long as it is favorable for Bitcoin, it may initially look bearish, but ultimately it is still bullish.

In short: a bullish signal means the cycle continues. A bearish signal requires adjustments to the plan. The cycle may continue, but the opportunities are smaller.

Supply Risk

The summer of 2024 experienced the madness of the macro environment, with the stock market repeatedly hitting new highs. However, due to the continuous impact of large supply sources such as Gox and Grayscale GBTC on the market, there weren't many gains.

Supply risks are always present. There will always be someone holding a large amount of Bitcoin, such as the UK government, Silk Road, FTX liquidation, etc. This requires close attention, but if everything goes smoothly, these events can be good buying opportunities.

macroeconomic risk

The expected rate cut will be limited. Although the outlook is not very optimistic, the fact is that as long as interest rates continue to decline, liquidity will improve. Similarly, positive signals indicate the continuation of the cycle. Unless there are rate hikes or no cuts, the macro environment should be favorable for digital assets.

The bearish signal is that inflation is rising again, and the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates to curb inflation.

) Token Recommendation

1. Artificial Intelligence

The field has gone through several rounds of booms. The next wave is expected to arrive soon. Simply buying and holding may not yield good results. As a pioneer in this field, Goat has dropped 60% from its peak and may continue to perform poorly.

Preferred: Application Technology / Collective Intelligence / Gaming / Consumer-facing AI

ALCH### game development ###, Griffain ( helps control wallet proxies ), Digimon, Ai16z, etc. are all good choices.

2. Decentralized Finance

DeFi will continue to be an important narrative, but the difficulty of investment is high, as there are few tokens that can benefit from it, and even those that do may have limited upside.

In terms of risk and return, DeFi is not the first choice.

Preferred: AAVE/ENA/Morpho/Euler/USUAL Secondary options: stablecoins/payment-related tokens

3. Public Chain

Public chains are expected to make a comeback. Hype deserves attention. Public chains have been overlooked by the market; they are one of the areas lacking attention but containing huge opportunities ( just as Hype grew tenfold ).

Preferred: SUI/Hype Secondary selection: Abstract

4. NFT Tokens and Game Tokens

The NFT token sector is worth paying attention to. PENGU is gradually recovering, Azuki has ANIME tokens, and Doodles also have related tokens. It is expected that NFTs will be difficult to revive, but their tokens may return. Additionally, it is also interesting to delve into exciting games with upcoming tokens.

Preferred: Pengu/Anime ( Azuki )/Spellborne/Treeverse Secondary selection: Prime/Off the grid ( If the token )/Overworld is launched

5. Other Narratives

• Data Token: Kaito/Arkm
• Meme Coin: PEPE
• DePIN:PEAQ/HNT
• Ordinals
• Traditional DeFi: CRV/CVX

( 11 Predictions for 2025

1. DePIN will be implemented by a certain company in some way, possibly through acquisition.

2. A certain trading platform will lose its market share position as the largest exchange. Not from Hyperliquid, but from other trading platforms.

3. With new advancements in VR technology, metaverse tokens will be reborn.

4. ICOs will rise again.

5. There will be no altcoin season on the Ethereum chain.

6. Sui will reach double digits ) with a minimum of $10 ###.

7. Ethereum ETF staking approved, leading to the creation of more yield products for staking other tokens and yield aggregators.

8. A well-known artist will use NFTs and tokens to engage with fans and provide rewards.

9. Bitcoin will reach $200,000.

10. More CEOs/founders of public chain institutions will follow the example of Aptos Labs CEO leaving.

11. Base lost in the competition with other public chains, and another public chain took its place. Solana continues to maintain its strength.