Analysis of the Stablecoin Market Landscape: The Rise of Six Major Forces

With the introduction of the US stablecoin bill (GENIUS), traditional financial institutions are accelerating their entry into the stablecoin space, and six major forces have now formed.

The largest force is Tether, the company that issues USDT. Tether has established connections with the Minister of Commerce and its camp includes several financial and investment institutions. The market capitalization of USDT is approximately $150 billion, accounting for 66.5% of the market share, holding an absolute dominant position.

The second largest force is an alliance formed by Coinbase and Circle. Although they lack political resources, they have potential in terms of scenario resources. For example, a certain social media giant is in talks with Circle to collaborate on a pilot program for small tips using stablecoins on its image-sharing platform. The market capitalization of USDC issued by Circle is approximately $61 billion, with a market share of 28.3%, making it the largest compliant stablecoin.

The third major force is formed around the USD1 stablecoin. A certain Middle Eastern sovereign fund and a large cryptocurrency exchange both belong to this camp. The USD1 was first issued on decentralized exchanges on the Ethereum and BNB chains. This group has strong political influence but also faces potential political risks.

The fourth major force is the global payment solution provider Stripe. By acquiring Bridge and issuing the USDB stablecoin, Stripe leverages its strong payment scenario advantages to enter the stablecoin market.

The fifth major force is a globally renowned payment company that has issued PYUSD. Despite having a large user base, the promotional efforts are insufficient. Although it briefly gained popularity on a certain public blockchain, offering returns as high as 15% to 20% to attract users, its market value has only reached 900 million USD over the years, indicating shortcomings in its operations.

The sixth major force is an alliance composed of large American banks and payment institutions, planning to jointly issue a stablecoin. The advantage of this alliance is its members' high credibility, but it faces the challenge of significant coordination difficulties.

The future stablecoin market structure may resemble that of the exchange market: divided into offshore and compliant categories. USDT is likely to continue to hold the leading position among offshore stablecoins, while USDC is expected to become the frontrunner among compliant stablecoins.

However, this does not mean that other stablecoins do not have opportunities. In different countries, regions, and business areas, there may still be local leaders, such as the Hong Kong dollar stablecoin or specialized stablecoins in the e-commerce sector. These local leaders will become important channels for the digital dollar to penetrate various peripheral regions and segmented business scenarios.

The future stablecoin market is likely to usher in a "hundred coin battle," and the development prospects of stablecoins are worth our continued attention.