Macroeconomic and Crypto Assets Market Analysis Report (May 2025)

1. Macroeconomic Situation

In May 2025, the U.S. economy is at a critical turning point. Inflation continues to decline, the labor market remains resilient, monetary policy enters a wait-and-see period, and trade policies bring new uncertainties. Against this backdrop, the Crypto Assets market shows strong resilience, and the global risk asset structure may undergo a new round of re-evaluation.

inflation trend

In April, the seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate dropped to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, indicating that price pressures continue to ease. The seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate recorded 0.2%, showing insufficient momentum for inflation to rebound in the short term. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury initiated a $40 billion Treasury bond repurchase operation, viewed as a "quasi-QE" measure aimed at releasing liquidity and refinancing at low interest rates. This operation has become an important force supporting the prices of risk assets.

Labor Market

In April 2025, non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs, far exceeding market expectations, reflecting the resilience of the labor market. This data provides a basis for the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see policy. Continued strong employment has, on one hand, alleviated market concerns about a recession, while on the other hand, it has also weakened the likelihood of multiple unexpected rate cuts within the year.

monetary policy dynamics

The Federal Reserve Chairman stated that he will reassess the current monetary policy framework and may abandon the "average inflation targeting" mechanism. He pointed out that frequent supply-side shocks are changing the traditional policy environment, prompting the Fed to focus more on structural inflation risks. In the future, the Fed may extend the period of high interest rates and even increase its holdings of medium- and long-term government bonds through balance sheet expansion to control the rise in long-term interest rates. The policy tone will be more flexible, and there is no urgency for preemptive rate cuts in the short term.

Trade Policy and Global Economic Outlook

In early May, the United States announced additional tariffs on EU goods, which were postponed for implementation, but the threat of high tariffs has already impacted market sentiment. In China, the central bank implemented a "cut in the reserve requirement ratio + interest rate cut" policy combination, releasing 1 trillion yuan in liquidity and lowering the policy interest rate to 1.4%. This move is seen as the start of a new round of easing cycle, with market expectations for improved China-US relations heating up and risk appetite simultaneously increasing.

2. Crypto Assets Market Overview

Trading Volume Analysis

As of May 27, the market's average daily trading volume was $117.4 billion, an increase of 15.8% compared to the previous period, indicating a continued rebound in capital activity. During this time, there were multiple instances of daily trading volumes increasing by over 50%. In the two phases from May 6 to May 12 and from May 21 to 22, trading volumes surged significantly, with daily trading volume once exceeding $180 billion. During this period, the price of Bitcoin broke through $100,000 and $110,000 respectively, significantly boosting market bullish sentiment.

Market Cap Change

As of May 27, the total market capitalization of Crypto Assets rebounded to $3.56 trillion, an increase of 17.0% from last month. Bitcoin's market share is 62.6%, while Ethereum's market share is 9.6%, with the latter showing a growth of 29.7% compared to the previous period, indicating a sustained preference for capital allocation towards Ethereum. Since May 8, the total market capitalization has risen above $3.3 trillion and has been steadily increasing, with a clear trend of structural market recovery.

emerging popular coin

Among the popular tokens launched in May, venture capital-backed projects still dominate, including Layer 2 projects SOPH and B2. Additionally, USD1, as one of the popular narratives in May, has also gained widespread attention in the market for related stablecoin projects such as B, Lista, and Staketone.

3. On-chain Data Analysis

ETF capital flow

In May, Bitcoin spot ETF funds showed a net inflow trend, with a cumulative inflow of approximately $5.77 billion. Ethereum spot ETF also attracted fund inflows, with a net inflow of about $317 million in May.

Stablecoin market changes

In May, the stablecoin market continued its strong growth trend, with a total circulation increase of approximately $7.28 billion. USDT, USDE, and DAI became the main drivers of growth this month.

4. Mainstream Crypto Assets Price Analysis

Bitcoin ( BTC )

The price of Bitcoin has surpassed its historical high, reaching $111,959. As of May 28, it has risen from $94,212 to $108,969 within the month, an increase of approximately 13.5%. Bulls are working hard to maintain the price above $109,588, with the rising moving average and the RSI approaching the overbought zone indicating an upward trend. If buyers can push the price up to $111,980, it may further rise to $130,000. Support levels below are at the 20-day EMA($104,886) and the psychological level of $100,000.

Ethereum ( ETH )

Benefiting from the anticipated Pectra upgrade and easing macro policies, Ethereum's price has seen a significant increase. As of May 28, it rose from $1,794 at the beginning of the month to $2,635, an increase of 31.9%. Bulls will again attempt to break through the resistance level of $2,738. If successful, it may rise to $3,000, while bears may try to halt it around $2,850. The support levels below are at the 20-day EMA($2,425) and $2,111.

Solana ( SOL )

Solana found support at the 20-day EMA on May 25 at $169(. The bulls will attempt to break through the resistance at $188 again. If successful, it may rise to $210, or even $220. The support levels below are at the 20-day EMA and the 50-day SMA at $151). If it rebounds from the 50-day SMA, it may oscillate between $153 and $188.

5. Hot Event Analysis

( USD1 ecological development

As of May 28, the market capitalization of the USD1 stablecoin has exceeded $2.1 billion, making it the seventh largest stablecoin. Its core advantage lies in being issued under the leadership of the Trump family, making it the first stablecoin project endorsed by a president. Recently, the prices of several tokens related to USD1 partners have surged, driving the market's high enthusiasm for the "WLFI+USD1" concept.

) The rise of the Believe platform

The core token of the Believe platform, Launchcoin, saw a significant increase in value this month, with its market capitalization once approaching $310 million. The platform focuses on the concept of "social assetization," and its innovative token issuance mechanism has rapidly boosted platform activity. However, the token $YAPPER, which was overly supported by the platform, plummeted after its launch, raising doubts within the community. As of May 28, the total market capitalization of the Believe ecosystem is approximately $290 million, with Launchcoin contributing nearly 63%.

6. Future Outlook

Progress of the Stablecoin Bill

The "GENIUS Act" has entered the amendment process through a debate motion. This act involves multiple aspects such as issuance qualification restrictions, reserve requirements, compliance obligations, and user protection, aiming to strengthen compliance in the issuance of stablecoins pegged to the US dollar and consolidate the international dominance of the digital dollar. The act is expected to complete the legislative process in Q4 2024, and future stablecoin projects with strong compliance may gain greater market recognition.

Ethereum ETF pledge approval

The U.S. SEC has postponed its decision on the Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF to June 1, with a final deadline at the end of October. In contrast, the Hong Kong Ethereum ETF staking has progressed more quickly, with several funds already approved to provide staking services. The market anticipates that U.S. regulators may soon reach a regulatory framework for the relevant mechanisms. Once approved, Ethereum and related staking assets may experience a new wave of market enthusiasm.