glassnode: Bitcoin inflows show signs of fatigue, and the four-year encryption cycle may still hold.

On August 21, Glassnode's latest market analysis report pointed out that Bitcoin's capital inflow is showing signs of fatigue, even as the price reached a new high of $124,400, demand is still weakening. While this demand slowdown is occurring, speculative positions have surged, with the open interest of major alts reaching a record high of $60 billion, followed by a pullback of $2.5 billion. Ethereum, long regarded as a bellwether for "altcoin season," has once again become the barometer for this round of fluctuations. Its dominance in holdings has risen to the fourth highest level in history, while its dominance in perpetual futures trading volume has soared to a new high of 67%, marking the strongest structural shift to date. From a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin's price movement also resonates with previous patterns. In the cycles of 2015-2018 and 2018-2022, based on the cyclical low points, Bitcoin's peak price was only 2-3 months later than our current level. Furthermore, long-term holders have realized profit levels comparable to those during previous booming periods, reinforcing the impression that the market is in a late-cycle phase. Taken together, these signals highlight the signs of historic mature market stages such as rising leverage, profit pullback, and intensified speculative activity. However, each cycle has its own characteristics, and it remains uncertain whether Bitcoin and the broader market will follow a fixed timeline.