Analysis of the Multiple Factors Behind the Big Pump of Sui Ecosystem Tokens

Recently, the Sui ecosystem has experienced a significant rise in the market, with its Token SUI increasing by over 75% within a week, far exceeding the overall market performance. There are multiple driving factors behind this phenomenon, including speculation driven by market rumors, changes in capital flow, and continuous improvements in the ecosystem's fundamentals. This article will delve into the capital trends, key catalytic factors, on-chain data performance, and potential risks of this rise, to comprehensively interpret the logic behind this ecological celebration.

Capital Flow Analysis: Influx of Hot Money into Exchanges, Surge in Contract Positions

From the perspective of on-chain capital flow, the changes in Sui are not significant. Over a three-month period, Sui has shown a net outflow of 32 million USD, which is relatively small. The changes in on-chain capital flow over the past month and the past week are even more negligible, failing to even make it into the top twenty among public chains.

However, the capital flow at the exchange level is quite active. Data shows that in the past seven days, the spot capital inflow of SUI reached 62.86 million USD, ranking fourth among all coins. During the same period, several ecological tokens of the Sui network, such as WAL, MEMEFI, and CETUS, also made it to the top ten in the contract capital inflow ranking, reflecting the capital activity of the ecosystem.

The contract open interest of SUI Token has significantly increased since April 21, soaring from 700 million to 1.419 billion within a week, nearly doubling and approaching the previous historical high of 1.5 billion.

It is worth noting that most of the tokens in the Sui ecosystem have also seen significant rises this week. According to statistics, 35 tokens have risen over 100% in the past week, accounting for 20% of the ecosystem projects; 37.5% of the tokens have risen over 50%, showing a comprehensive upward trend.

From a financial perspective, this rise is a comprehensive boost to the Sui ecosystem. Although most projects have no substantial positive news, the price performance is unusually remarkable.

Multiple positive factors boost market sentiment

On April 21, alongside the general rebound of mainstream Tokens, Sui also began its rise. Subsequently, several positive news items emerged, but whether these news truly drove the big pump of Sui or were just "smoke screens" released to coordinate with the price increase remains to be discussed.

Ecological cooperation news

1. Pokémon collaboration rumors: On April 23, the Pokémon HOME application updated its privacy policy, listing Parasol Technologies, acquired by the Sui development team, as an authorized developer. This news sparked market speculation about the possibility of Pokémon integrating into the Sui blockchain, igniting imaginations about potential NFT integrations or blockchain-based collectibles.

2. xMoney/xPortal Collaboration: On April 24, Sui announced a partnership with the financial platform xMoney and the crypto application xPortal, planning to launch a Sui-branded virtual Mastercard in Europe, integrated within the xPortal app which has 2.5 million users.

ETF related progress

Recently, the news that 21Shares set up the "SUI ETF" statutory trust entity has been widely circulated. Although this information originated from the registration details on January 7 of this year, the recent exposure seems to have provided support for the rise of SUI.

Other positive news

• The Athens Stock Exchange Group has completed the technical design for the on-chain fundraising platform built on Sui.
• Nautilus brings verifiable off-chain privacy solutions to Sui.
• Canary Capital submitted SUI ETF application

Overall, Sui's recent progress in multiple areas such as Web3 gaming, privacy, and development environments has come together to create an overall positive outlook, which is different from the previous outbreaks triggered by single messages.

DEX Trading Volume Surge and Potential Risks

Since April, the DEX trading volume on the Sui network has remained high. After reaching a historical peak of $998 million on March 29, it has consistently surpassed $400 million in daily trading volume for several days. The leading DEX project within the ecosystem, Cetus Protocol, has driven the overall growth, with trading volume increasing by 84.5% in the past week, and its Token CETUS is also close to doubling.

Another important contributor, Kriya, contributed $780 million in trading volume on March 29, an increase of more than 100 times compared to the previous day. This surge may be related to the airdrop of Walrus. On March 27, the decentralized storage project Walrus released an airdrop, with a trading volume of $380 million on that day, which may be the main reason for the recent rise in trading volume on the Sui network.

The activity level of developers is also the foundation for the growth of the Sui network. Since December 2024, the frequency of Sui's Github code submissions has peaked, maintaining over 500 times per week, far exceeding that of Solana and Aptos.

However, there are still potential risks in the market frenzy:

1. Token unlocking pressure: SUI unlocks tens of millions of Tokens every week, becoming the largest supplier in the market, which is a potential instability factor during the rise cycle.

2. Unbalanced ecological structure: Currently, the rise is mainly led by DEX or infrastructure projects, while MEME tokens or application/game projects are not performing prominently. Tokens with a market capitalization of over ten million are still primarily early projects, lacking truly attractive "internet celebrity" applications that can draw in a large number of users.

Conclusion

The recent surge of SUI Token and its ecosystem is the result of the combined effects of market speculation enthusiasm, capital inflow, contract market expectations, and fundamental progress. However, while paying attention to price performance, one must also be wary of the selling pressure brought by the continuous unlocking of tokens, and focus on whether the application ecosystem can further prosper and give birth to truly attractive blockbuster applications for users. This will determine whether Sui can convert its current popularity into long-term value.