Trader Who Just Sold 33% of His Ethereum Bag Explains Why He'll Sell Everything In October

Crypto researcher Orbion has disclosed a detailed trading plan aimed at exiting the market before what he anticipates will be the end of the current cycle.

In a recent post, he revealed that he has already sold 33% of his Ethereum holdings and intends to liquidate his positions by the end of October. While stating that he remains bullish in the short term, he pointed to patterns from 2017 and 2021 that suggest a sharp and rapid downturn when the market tops.

Orbion noted that Bitcoin has doubled from its yearly lows, showing strong institutional demand, while Ethereum has broken and held above $4,200, indicating the potential for further gains. His short-term target for Ethereum is between $5,800 and $6,000, which he said would represent a threefold increase from the cycle lows and align with historical mid-cycle extension levels.

Market Rotation and Historical Patterns

According to Orbion, once Ethereum reaches its peak, capital historically rotates into high-cap altcoins, followed by lower-cap assets. He described this as the most lucrative yet dangerous phase, citing a consistent rotation pattern between Bitcoin, Ethereum, high caps, and smaller alts in both 2017 and 2021.

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Currently, he believes the market is in the “Ethereum dominance” stage, characterized by high liquidity and investor euphoria, which typically lasts only a few weeks before liquidity exits the market entirely.

Orbion projected that Bitcoin could begin topping in late September, followed by Ethereum. By the end of October, he expects Bitcoin to be around $55,000, Ethereum to fall to about $1,400, and Solana to drop around $75.

He stressed that this is not a bearish forecast, but a reflection of how historical post-peak corrections have unfolded, with experienced traders exiting well before retail participants recognize the downturn.

Risk Management and Key Indicators

The researcher warned that altcoins can lose 20–30% in a single day after momentum fades, often failing to recover their highs for the rest of the cycle. He emphasized the importance of selling into strength rather than during panic.

Key market metrics such as Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), and Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) are among the indicators he is monitoring.

Orbion noted that NUPL readings of +0.75 indicate extreme unrealized profit levels, SOPR turning negative reflects loss-taking after peaks, and high MVRV levels show unsustainable valuations.

Staged Exit Plan

Orbion’s strategy involves selling in stages. He intends to first take profits on lower liquidity altcoins, followed by high-cap assets like Solana, Avalanche, and Polygon during peak rotation. His final step would be to exit Bitcoin and Ethereum into stablecoins and yield-generating positions before mid-October.

While he expects a September rate cut to serve as a short-term catalyst for crypto prices, Orbion cautioned that the rally will likely be brief, lasting weeks rather than months. He advised against waiting for the “right moment,” arguing that by the time market sentiment shifts, it will be too late to act.

In his view, the most bullish point of the cycle often coincides with the top, marked by record volumes, all-time highs, and intense media coverage; these are conditions under which seasoned traders are already exiting their positions.

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